HD DVD vs. Bluray - what's the staus?

[AthlonXP1800]

HD-DVD will win because they will be the first ones to get a player below $100. It'll probably happen this Christmas. Blu-ray will NEVER catch on because Joe Public will NEVER pay $500 for a movie player. EVER.

Price is what will win this war as both formats basically give you the same thing audio and visual wise (with HD-DVD currently having an edge in that regard).

Well after 3 days of $99 Toshiba A2 sales ended, Toshiba hoped 90,000 units sold would see a huge marketshare gain from Blu-ray but until sales data released week ended 4 Nov, Blu-ray still very strong than weeks before hold 71% and HD-DVD dropped to 29%. Toshiba not going to very happy that last week price cut gained nothing.

http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/7538/hdmshareey8.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Zelda_fan]

Well after 3 days of $99 Toshiba A2 sales ended, Toshiba hoped 90,000 units sold would see a huge marketshare gain from Blu-ray but until sales data released week ended 4 Nov, Blu-ray still very strong than weeks before hold 71% and HD-DVD dropped to 29%. Toshiba not going to very happy that last week price cut gained nothing.

http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/7538/hdmshareey8.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

That was a SALE that very few people were able to take advantage of. It was not a price cut. The MSRP of the A2 is still the same. If I would have saw an A2 for $99 I'd of bought it on the spot. I'm talking about a regular price of $99.

[evilchris]

Well after 3 days of $99 Toshiba A2 sales ended, Toshiba hoped 90,000 units sold would see a huge marketshare gain from Blu-ray but until sales data released week ended 4 Nov, Blu-ray still very strong than weeks before hold 71% and HD-DVD dropped to 29%. Toshiba not going to very happy that last week price cut gained nothing.



Anything resulting from the sale wouldn't be in this weeks Nielson numbers, which are meaninless anyway. Sony's CEO doesn't seem to think things are looking good.

[Lyme]

As well, Walmart doesn't report their sales numbers to anyone, including nielson.

[Ruined]

Well after 3 days of $99 Toshiba A2 sales ended, Toshiba hoped 90,000 units sold would see a huge marketshare gain from Blu-ray but until sales data released week ended 4 Nov, Blu-ray still very strong than weeks before hold 71% and HD-DVD dropped to 29%. Toshiba not going to very happy that last week price cut gained nothing.

Unfortunately you did not realize that the Nielsen numbers released this week actually track last week's sales. Nor do I think you realized that Nielsen does not track Walmart sales, and that is where the $99 Secret Sale was at.

P.S. - Sony just stated the war will end up a stalemate:
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6182612.html?tag=latestnews;title;4

Odd that you have more faith in the format than BD's primary backer.

[AthlonXP1800]

Unfortunately you did not realize that the Nielsen numbers released this week actually track last week's sales. Nor do I think you realized that Nielsen does not track Walmart sales, and that is where the $99 Secret Sale was at.

Maybe you not read what I said Nielsen sales data released yesterday tracked last week sales ended 4 Nov. Well many people from all forums claimed that Nielsen do and did not cover Walmart and I researched to find out whether or not they track Walmart. I found out from Nielsen/NetRatings that they does track Walmart and I am surprise that they also track ebay.

http://www.nielsen-netratings.com/pr/pr_041129.pdf

[Ruined]

Maybe you not read what I said Nielsen sales data released yesterday tracked last week sales ended 4 Nov. Well many people from all forums claimed that Nielsen do and did not cover Walmart and I researched to find out whether or not they track Walmart. I found out from Nielsen/NetRatings that they does track Walmart and I am surprise that they also track ebay.

http://www.nielsen-netratings.com/pr/pr_041129.pdf

The numbers you quoted on the last page are not "Nielsen/Netratings," they are the standard NIelsen numbers which do not include Walmart.

[Lyme]

Maybe you not read what I said Nielsen sales data released yesterday tracked last week sales ended 4 Nov. Well many people from all forums claimed that Nielsen do and did not cover Walmart and I researched to find out whether or not they track Walmart. I found out from Nielsen/NetRatings that they does track Walmart and I am surprise that they also track ebay.

http://www.nielsen-netratings.com/pr/pr_041129.pdf

That pdf you linked is only for impressions, and not sales.

http://publications.mediapost.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Articles.showEdition&art_send_date=2007-5-17&art_type=43

Wal-Mart will provide the sales data only for use by members of the Nielsen In-Store syndicate and only for that program, not broader applications. It has not released sales data to syndicated market-research firms for six years. The company has claimed it wasn't getting as much out of data it received as it was giving up in the way of competitive intelligence.

The Nielsen In-Store service was launched two weeks ago on a limited basis and plans to roll out nationally in early 2008. It will count traffic in stores that are in "compliance" with a media or promotion program and seek to count only unique impressions -- defined as shoppers who actually walk down a particular aisle and have an opportunity to see the media or promotion in place.

Seeing a product, is not the same as buying a product.

[wolfgar]

my $0.02, and trying to be as non biased as possible.

Technologically:
Both are nearly identical, with some minor implementation differences. these differences are causing some teething problems, or are just silly check list items.

HD-DVD - has hit a more stable level earlier with their interactive menuing system
Blu-Ray- created a new advanced user interface system BL+ (?? not exactly sure) that is turning out to be difficult to implement and the current players are having some problem getting functional updates to support. Some recent titles didn't work on release day.
HD-DVD has a technical advantage as its easier (cheaper) to create snazzy menus.
Both are advancing..

Copy Protection:
Not heavily discussed, because neither camp likes to talk about that, except to attack each other.

Blu-Ray- has an advanced DRM (not fully released yet) that is attractive to the Studios looking to stop piracy (lost $$). End users may get really pissed if the studios end up killing the players because some jerk in Norway hacks the same model of player that they own. (this is a very complicated issue, but bricking of players is possible)
Hasn't happened ... YET!!!

Otherwise, both use the same basic copy protection (which has been cracked, patched, and cracked already) $$ Millions wasted ,months delayed

Visual output:
HD-DVD with their latest firmware release, has superior video output (1080p/24) that Blu-Ray cannot yet match. (high end displays required)
Neither is plug and play, and requires advanced user knowledge to tweak the player/tv setting for optimal display, for each different movie title. (because of different movie encoding differences)
HD-DVD has a technical an advantage (minor, due to complexity/requirements)

Specifics of the individual player model are more important here, entry vs advanced model,

Adoption/sales:
A near tie. Blu-Ray had a starting advantage with the PS3 early release. Arguments abound as if these PS3's are used to play movies or not, and what their longterm impact will be. (endless what if's: What if PS3 tanks/stalls as a game system?)
Toshiba demonstrated that price will drive sales, and they are cheaper.
Both camps spin and cherry pick to support their desired bias.

Currently, the real sales figures are trivial in the overall scheme. Its like predicting a nascar race while the cars are still accelerating into the second turn of the race. Exciting and fun. but really pointless and simple posturing.

Studio Support:
Exclusive studio support is disaster for everyone, as highly desired movies are only available on one or another. Early adopters have been known to by both format players.
Blu-Ray has an good advantage here

Manufacturing (ease/cost):
Blu-Ray requires new manufacturing equipment == more expensive to create disks
HD-DVD - can use modified existing DVD pressing equipment. Cheaper and faster to ramp up production.
HD-DVD has a manufacturing $$ advantage.
Both are having production issues for players and disks due to limited capacity.

Historical backing:
Blu-Ray - owned 100% by Sony (which owns the PS3, and 2-3 major movie studios) This can be good and bad. Sony dumps losers suddenly. Longterm having one company in total control for the HD format is not appealing to the industry honchos. Sony can be a 900 gorilla.
HD-DVD - created by everyone else as the successor to DVD's. BUT, only Toshiba is providing significant push (with some sideline assistance and cheering)

Summation:

So, its too early to tell.
This holiday season will be significant for both formats.
The longer this war (more like a slap fest, one up manship) goes on, the greater chance everyone will lose out to HD video on demand.
(Verizon FIOS and DirecTV are pushing hard here)

My advise:

Either accept that fact you may chose the long term loser and lose $500+ over a few years, or wait till the blood dries a bit next year.
PS: The way both camps are updating/replacing players, just assume you will replace it in less than 2 years anyway. The disks will work for years.


My personal Bias (finally)
Business wise and technologically, I lean towards HD-DVD. I just don't trust Sony when they create their propertiary formats. But, of the current released movies, Blu-ray has more movies that 'I' want to own. Lean back...
But, there are not a lot in either format, I really want yet. A lot of junk and fluff.
No, I haven't purchased yet. I almost bought one of the $99 HD-DVD specials last week.


Remember, the manufacturers and studios are in this for the $$$. Bribes, and kickbacks are rampant right now as these two monopolies are in a blood feud over the future of many billions of $$. Not our good will..

[wolfgar]

here's a site with enough detail and rabid forum fanboys to keep you busy/entertained over the holidays. (duel)

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/

[Xav]

here's a site with enough detail and rabid forum fanboys to keep you busy/entertained over the holidays. (duel)

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/

How true that is! I'm usually posting there everyday ;)

[Gaco]

Noticed your forum title... you should slap some TF2 Red and Blu team logos on the boxes, too. :D
Hehe I would if it weren't for the fact that he isn't much of a gamer so he wouldn't understand :D

Keep the receipts, just incase.
Oh I will, I'm not that evil! :lol:
I'll either buy him a couple of HD DVD's or an HD DVD and a Bluray disk then let him decide if he wants to exchange one of them for the other format or perhaps both for a credit voucher - his choice totally. Though I'm sure he can't resist the HD glory if he first gets his hands on them :D

Thanks again to everyone for their input, especially wolfgar for that especially lengty one :)

I've been researching myself a whole lot since the inception of this thread and I must say that where I was neutral before I now give a slight nod towards HD DVD for several reasons; first I have a fundamantal trust issue with a sony-developed-and proprietary format because of their history of failure (Betamax and UMD comes into mind). Secondly I somehow feel that HD DVD is a more 'stable' and well thought through format from the beginning that isn't overly expensive to manufacture and doesn't throw new features in every HD DVD player every ½ year that you can't take advantage of as an early adopter until they finally end up with something that they're happy with - in comparison Bluray seems a bit more like a luxury and technological adventure that is impressive but expensive and in lack of reliable standards and seems to me to have a more uncertain future in spite of the current sales situation and PS3 push. Thirdly I also sense that the the studios can sense this themselfs and none seem to be speaking any less of the HD DVD in spite of it's few and slight shortcoming on the tech papers and a few even seem to be slowly going from BD-exclusive to hybrid. I mean we don't see a tendancy of HD DVD supporters going over to Bluray because there's no reason to; they are surprisingly not under as much pressure as you might initially think (though they are undeniably in fierce competition with BD of course). Fourth it does mean a lot to me that Heroes Season 1 is coming to HD DVD exclusively right here and right now from Universal Pictures - I really want to give my father this experience in HD as I found this to be one of the most entertaining TV series for years. And finally HD DVD seems more affordable for everyone which is very important in the end, and also for me if I am to give my dad some HD movies for chrismas and giving him an affordable option to play them too by a X360 HD DVD drive, at least until he eventually buys a highend stanalone HD DVD player if he does.

Of coruse any big news between now and the next few weeks where I must purchase all this stuff may change my stance, but this is my personal preferance for now - willing to accept either format for whichever comes out on top in the end, but right now leaning slightly towards HD DVD. If this stalemate continues for another year, I'm sure my dad will go both formats especially if a highend combi comes out and all worries will be solved. And naturally if 24, Prison Break, Lost and other must have's are not coming to HD DVD in a near future (couple of years) I have to go multiformat in any case.

I now have a question though. How serious an issue is it that the Xbox360 Premium, which I have, lacks HDMI? The thing I'm most inclined to do right now is drop the "giving my dad both an HD/BD movie for xmas" and instead give him BBC's Planet Earth and Heroes Season 1 on HD DVD instead + a standalone HD DVD player + 5 free HD DVD movies offer (would go for Children of Men, Serinity, The Prestige, Troy and World Trade Center or something like that (http://www.hddvdeurope.com/_pdf/offers/hddvd_xbox360_dk.pdf)) for my Xbox360 which is currently at his play and in if I go through with this I'd let it stay there indefinetely. However I am a bit worried about the connection possibilties. We have tried to get the component working properly, but the sound would never work. The solution we found was to plug the analog composite stereo soundjacks into the SCART adaptor and use the sound that way. I also have a VGA cable for it but I have yet to ask him his HDTV/Box supports that. What do you think? I'm NOT buying an Xbox360 Elite ;) :D

[Mr. Hunt]

Uhhh... Wolfgar.... Sony doesn't own Blu-Ray 100%... check up on your facts there bud.

[Gaco]

here's a site with enough detail and rabid forum fanboys to keep you busy/entertained over the holidays. (duel)

http://forums.highdefdigest.com/
Thanks that's seems like a very active forum. I just made my first post (http://forums.highdefdigest.com/showthread.php?p=466588#post466588) there :D

[Xav]

Uhhh... Wolfgar.... Sony doesn't own Blu-Ray 100%... check up on your facts there bud.

It has still been tainted by their grubby mits ;)