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View Full Version : Can AMD survive another Core 2 Duo?


nekrosoft13
08-17-08, 03:26 PM
IDF is just around the corner and Intel will provide a flood of new information about its upcoming Nehalem (Core i7) processor as well as its 32 nm and 22 nm successors, new architectures such as Larrabee, the ready-to-launch WiMax mobile platform, CE processors such as Tolapai and new partners such as Dreamworks. IDF’s marketing machine typically buries anything from AMD, but this year, AMD is reverting to a strategy from the past: AMD is setting up its camp in a hotel nearby in an effort to balance Intel’s messages. A first briefing discounting Intel’s current product line was given to journalists earlier today. And if the tone of this briefing is any indication, then Nehalem feels like Core 2 Duo all over again.

If you are somewhat interested in what Intel is up to these days, next week’s IDF should bring very few surprises. The new Core i7 processor, the first chip based on Nehalem architecture, will debut in desktop flavors in the fourth quarter, there will be more Nehalem mobile and server chips in 2009; there will be more details on the company’s much discussed 2009/2010; Larrabee graphics card; we will see USB 3.0 and WiMax demonstrations; Intel will announce that it is now producing more 45 nm than 65 nm processors and it will tell attendees that its mobile CPUs are overtaking desktop CPUs in terms of production volume. There will be plenty of information of future technologies that we can expect to see within the next four to five years. In fact we hear that the information coming out of IDF Fall will exceed any other previous IDF and we expect Intel to take full advantage to make its pitch to the 5000-or-so developers and a few hundred journalists from around the world.

There is not much AMD can do during this time, but I understand that it is a bit awkward for AMD executives and the marketing department to keep quiet and simply watch as Intel conquers the front pages of tech publications for a full week. Rather than wait for journalists to check back with AMD and ask the green team’s take on Intel’s claims, the company this year decided to take a pro-active approach again and relay its message before the feeding frenzy begins.

So, what is AMD’s message?


1. It’s all about graphics

Note to AMD: We got it. A great processor alone does not make you happy anymore. I believe most journalists out there are absolutely with AMD on this one, but repeating this story over and over does not convince us even more than we already are. There is nothing new to this story for IDF, other than I noticed a new marketing term for visual quality – “Eye Definition.” I levae that up to you how well this one works.

AMD’s balanced platform approach consisting of a good-enough processor and strong graphics are probably the best weapon AMD currently has against Intel. As long as Intel graphics chipsets remain weak, this is AMD’s most effective pitch. However, the Radeon 4800 was just announced, so there is really nothing new from AMD and the company did not provide anything about what may come after the 4800 series. The company needs to follow up on this one quickly to keep its traction in the market.







2. Larrabee: Discussing a paper product

Nvidia already zeroed in on Larrabee and sent a document questioning Larrabee’s product claims to journalists. AMD now chimes in and asks questions about Larrabee’s scalability, power consumption and a possible failing software model for the new architecture. AMD’s executive said that “Larrabee feels like the next Itanium” to them, which may be a bit early to say, since we really haven’t seen a product yet. Also, AMD failed to mention that it does not have the best track record with choosing a software model for its stream processors either – the software model was changed twice within the past 12 months.







Attacks on Larrabee are to be expected and Nvidia in fact does this in a very efficient way while providing a very convincing platform, which is the market leader at this time. But these shots are little more than scatter shooting right now as neither AMD nor Nvidia know what they are actually shooting at. Intel needs to provide a lot more details about Larrabee before anyone can make any reasonable claims what this product will be able to do and what not.

Larrabee is without doubt on AMD’s radar, but the company says it is “delighted” with its own direction, which involved a switch to an open programming model of its graphics cards. Beyond that, we don’t know much. Criticizing a high power consumption of Larrabee does not work (yet), as we don’t know how much power Larrabee will consume and AMD just rolled out its own 270 watt graphics card .


3. Opteron is fast, Xeon is slow and expensive

We also heard (again) that the company’s Opteron chip is faster and more power efficient than Intel’s Xeon processors. We don’t want to go too deep into this one, but anyone who is researching this topic knows that at least the power claims are justified. However, Intel has been cutting deep into Opteron revenues and shipments and, ultimately, AMD margins. There is an obvious problem AMD needs to come up with more convincing messages and products that are even more compelling than the B3 Opterons it is offering today.

Nehalem-based Xeons are just around the corner and it does not take much to see that these processors will continue the march that was started with Intel’s Woodcrest Xeons back in Q3 2006. So, what is AMD’s plan? First, AMD hopes that the dual-socket and four-socket Nehalems won’t be available anytime soon and then there is the 45 nm Shanghai that will be shipping in Q4. AMD said that it believes that actual Shanghai server will be available in Q4 as well. Desktop processors will follow “quickly”, which, if AMD will keep its traditional product strategy in place, means that 45 nm desktop processors will roll out within 60 – 90 days after the Shanghai debut.

There was no additional information about Shanghai available.




http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/38920/128/

Tr1cK
08-17-08, 04:33 PM
AMD survived through P1 and P2. AMD became slightly better than P3 when it was around, but it was too late by then, Intel's marketing and vendor relations kept them on top of the game even during the P4 era. Until AMD improves marketing and makes people want to buy them, they will never top Intel in any thing but performance if they can even do that again.

Intel17
08-17-08, 09:06 PM
I think AMD will simply be relegated to the graphics market and the low end CPU market. At least they've ATI...

buicks suck
08-17-08, 10:24 PM
The only reason amd is in bad financial shape right now is b/c of pc or discrete cpu buyers' ignorance.

If intel hadn't advertised their brand name and paid retailers money to exclusively sell their products, then amd wouldn't be in trouble.

Seriously, you would have to have been a very casual and inexperienced pc user to have bought any p4 over any athlon 64/64 x2.

It wasn't amd's fault that people were so stupid, and it isn't their fault that intel's jockin g their style with an on-chip memory controller with the upcoming i7.

AMD put more money into r&d/making a good product, intel put more money into marketing. The company that does the latter always thrives, the company that does the former always takes 2nd place, no matter how much better their products are. It's like kind of like how 3dfx died.

nekrosoft13
08-17-08, 10:59 PM
how are you kevpla

Bearclaw
08-17-08, 11:01 PM
:lol2: :rofl

buicks suck
08-17-08, 11:05 PM
how are you kevpla
I don't know. But this thread isn't about kevpla.

Intel17
08-18-08, 12:37 AM
I would have bought the argument that Intel's marketing machine pretty much suppresses knowledge of AMD to the general consumer at any time between 1999-2005, but the truth is that Intel's on a flippin' roll and has been since the launch of the Core 2 products. Not only does Intel have the marketing muscle, but they've actually the superior product and well-laid out roadmap from now to the forseeable future.

Both Intel and AMD have done a lot of growing over the years, but the sad reality (for AMD and its fans) is that Intel's financial and technical prowess are now being used to their fullest extent and I really, really think it would take nothing short of a combination of technical ingenuity on AMD's part coupled with a complete engineering ineptitude on Intel's part to allow AMD to gain any significant lost ground.

I do know that my screenname is "Intel17", but I would just as quickly support AMD if they had the superior product, so please don't think I'm a fanboy.

ViN86
08-18-08, 01:17 AM
The only reason amd is in bad financial shape right now is b/c of pc or discrete cpu buyers' ignorance.

If intel hadn't advertised their brand name and paid retailers money to exclusively sell their products, then amd wouldn't be in trouble.

Seriously, you would have to have been a very casual and inexperienced pc user to have bought any p4 over any athlon 64/64 x2.

It wasn't amd's fault that people were so stupid, and it isn't their fault that intel's jockin g their style with an on-chip memory controller with the upcoming i7.

AMD put more money into r&d/making a good product, intel put more money into marketing. The company that does the latter always thrives, the company that does the former always takes 2nd place, no matter how much better their products are. It's like kind of like how 3dfx died.

umm, what? what does p4 and athlon x2 have to do with the fact that Core 2 Duo is a flat out better chip than anything AMD has right now?

i like AMD too, and i want them to do well because the CPU market needs competition. but C2D kicks the **** out of AMD's cpu's this round (in terms of performance) and it looks like Nehalem is going to be the same thing all over.

if AMD wants to succeed, they need to start working with their strengths, which is the fact that they have GPU's that can blow anything intel has to offer out of the water. they need to work on migrating the CPU and GPU.