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Tuork
06-09-09, 09:30 AM
http://www.engadget.com/2009/06/09/ea-vp-says-the-xbox-360-is-maxed-out/

Gonna have to bite my tongue regarding my previous statements in another thread regarding the 10 year lifespan of the X360.

According to EA VP Patrick Soderlund, the console is reaching its limits. I'm still blown away by the sheer awesomeness of upcoming games, but I would hate to see Microsoft in a pickle over this.

As they mention in the engadget article, maybe Microsoft's next gen console will come sooner than expected.

The problem is that this is going to turn into a cycle. MS puts out a new "next gen" console, and a year later Sony comes out with a new "true next gen" console. Add 7-10 years, and repeat. That is, unless sony and MS debut new consoles at the same time, be it because MS takes longer, or Sony jumps the gun.

Thoughts?

|MaguS|
06-09-09, 09:55 AM
10 yrs does not mean they will discontinue the current model and only support the new one, atleast by Sony standards. Sony has been doing the 10 year lifecycle for their hardware since the PSX. Basically 6-7 years into the life of the console they release the next system and continue to support the original. I mean Sony is still make PS2 Hardware, its still selling well and there are still games coming out for it...

I expect new systems to be announced probably at E3 2011 with a release of 2012, maybe... MS will probably be out the gate first again but I don't expect its console to be that large of a leap as in new architecture... probably just a revision of the current hardware. Same with Sony but their evolution will be alot grander since their is more room to evolve the hardware in the PS3 without increasing the cost associated with such changes.

NarcissistZero
06-09-09, 03:15 PM
The key thing for MS is to make everything bought on Live transferrable... including DLC, which obviously means backwards compatability.

The 360 is not a long lasting machine and people will want their digital purchases to last. If they keep the profiles, achievements and purchased games/DLC constant across machines, they will probably not piss anyone off with a new machine so "soon."

Tuork
06-09-09, 03:38 PM
The key thing for MS is to make everything bought on Live transferrable... including DLC, which obviously means backwards compatability.

The 360 is not a long lasting machine and people will want their digital purchases to last. If they keep the profiles, achievements and purchased games/DLC constant across machines, they will probably not piss anyone off with a new machine so "soon."


Hmm... that's a very good point. I don't think they'll be stupid enough to screw that up though.

Either way, I'm very happy with the current level of "maxed out-ness" the X360 is currently producing. Granted, there's always room for improvement. :)

Buio
06-09-09, 03:48 PM
The upcoming graphics cards and generation after that will set the standards for next console generation. Therefore it is very interesting to see how good GPGPU functions they can achieve on PC, because that will translate into consoles. The Cell and similar CPU might become "obsolete", when the capacity of the GPU is so high that it can take over complex tasks from the CPU. Of course it has to do with the level of graphics reaching a roof, where the GPU is relaxed and have much capacity over.

Of course a good enough CPU has to be used for I/O and other simple tasks more suited for it, maybe stick with same level as they have today.

And I do hope we get a console generation where 1080p is standard without having to reduce resolution for advanced graphics.

six_storm
06-09-09, 04:28 PM
I was a little surprised when I heard MS talking about how the 360 is going to have a 10 year lifespan. Does that mean that the next gen console will be coming out in 2-3 more years, leaving some games still releasing for the 360 until 2014?

I think with today's economical train wreck, it's awesome that the next gen consoles aren't out and that companies like MS are building new technologies for their current systems. Project Natal will (hopefully) be less than $100 and I believe that it will add some extra fun to gameplay.

Yeah, maybe the hardware isn't up to par any more but what other 5 year old system is? ;) Heck, IMO, the graphical boom in the PC gaming world has came to big slow down.

|MaguS|
06-09-09, 06:36 PM
The upcoming graphics cards and generation after that will set the standards for next console generation. Therefore it is very interesting to see how good GPGPU functions they can achieve on PC, because that will translate into consoles. The Cell and similar CPU might become "obsolete", when the capacity of the GPU is so high that it can take over complex tasks from the CPU. Of course it has to do with the level of graphics reaching a roof, where the GPU is relaxed and have much capacity over.

Of course a good enough CPU has to be used for I/O and other simple tasks more suited for it, maybe stick with same level as they have today.

And I do hope we get a console generation where 1080p is standard without having to reduce resolution for advanced graphics.

I wouldn't lump the CELL with General CPUs considering it can do alot more then a General CPU can. If anything its closer to being a GPU then a CPU (it can actually handle graphics rendering on its own, just a bitch to program for).

I expect the PS4 to have a higher end CELL Chip and a newer nvidia chip, probably based off the GT300 (considering its not launching till 2 years after it atleast).

Buio
06-09-09, 06:48 PM
I wouldn't lump the CELL with General CPUs considering it can do alot more then a General CPU can. If anything its closer to being a GPU then a CPU (it can actually handle graphics rendering on its own, just a bitch to program for).

I expect the PS4 to have a higher end CELL Chip and a newer nvidia chip, probably based off the GT300 (considering its not launching till 2 years after it atleast).

My thought is that if the GPU is powerful enough then the console makers wont have to spend the money to have a big extra heat generating CPU too. At least not push the borders, instead sticking with an effective low cost, low watt solution that is enough to drive the powerful GPU.

Just speculating of course, and maybe being on NVidias line that CPU will be less important in the future.

|MaguS|
06-09-09, 06:56 PM
My thought is that if the GPU is powerful enough then the console makers wont have to spend the money to have a big extra heat generating CPU too. At least not push the borders, instead sticking with an effective low cost, low watt solution that is enough to drive the powerful GPU.

Just speculating of course, and maybe being on NVidias line that CPU will be less important in the future.

CPUs will always be needed and by the time the PS4 hits production an evolved form of the CELL would not cost much since they are already hitting the 45nm, what will happen in time? That would lower cost, heat and power usuage.

Buio
06-09-09, 09:47 PM
CPUs will always be needed and by the time the PS4 hits production an evolved form of the CELL would not cost much since they are already hitting the 45nm, what will happen in time? That would lower cost, heat and power usuage.

Yeah I already stated that CPU will be needed, but as said if GPUs get much more powerful there might not be that much use for a advanced CPU. Especially the Cell because it has GPU like functions, why not put in a better CPU instead. There is going to be a lot of evolution on the GPU side in the upcoming years.

|MaguS|
06-09-09, 09:59 PM
But High End GPUs would be far more expensive then just using a good CPU for simple operations. GPUs do not lower in cost as quickly as CPUs do, especially when its cheap now in 3 years it will be extremely cheap and easy to produce... Top of the line GPUs also generate far more heat then a CPU so having it do alot of work would be very stressful... do we need another RROD for the next generation?

A console does not need to use the newest hardware ever since it will run on a limited resolution of HDTVs. 1080p as a standard wont stress top of the line GPUs now so in 3 years those will be cheap enough to use if not the next generation (like the GT300).

Yaboze
06-09-09, 11:18 PM
The thing hurting the 360 is that it still has a DVD player and most sold up until only recently haven't had HDMI ports. People hook it up via Component or buy the VGA cable.

I would say 99% of the games for BOTH systems are 720p, something they are both guilty of. IMHO, the PS3 will outlive the 360, but not by much

For the next gen, they must shoot (IMHO) for the following, MS and Sony alike (Sony has some of this already):

1080p standard in games, make it a minimum requirement for the system, design the entire system to run games 60FPS at 1920x1080. Design the GPU, Dedicated Memory, bus, the whole thing around this principle.
Put in/Allow HD scalers to run stuff at 720p for those who have it.
It must have an HDMI 1.3x standard port.
Support separate Optical Out for receivers
Bluetooth instead of "wireless" controllers
Support Wi-Fi B/G/N and Ethernet out of the box
High capacity optical drive, Blu Ray 4x preferred since HD-DVD is dead.
Allow installation of games from the start and as a choice
Provide 100% backwards compatibility (in hardware) to 360/PS3 respecfully.
Support user replaceable HDD's.
Support USB/Bluetooth Keyboards/Mice/Etc
Continue with the Media support; MP3's, Streaming video rentals, etc.
Possibly allow DVR type functions

|MaguS|
06-09-09, 11:48 PM
Wow... shooting for the moon aren't you?

I can tell you now that alot of those wont happen.

MS would never support Bluetooth because it would open their console up out of their control.

Games will still try to avoid installations because its not the best for console games, people want to pop in the title and play... not install a game, yes an option would be great but no dev would take advantage of it as an option (they have the option now with PS3 and few use it).

MS will avoid Blu-Ray if they can... They are bitter about HD-DVD losing and will go with Digital Distro before going Blu-Ray.

Again, No system would make supporting K&M a requirement, its optional now on the PS3 but none would ever require compatibility... goes against consoles principle.

MS would never go for replacable Hard Drive, again it takes control out of their hand. Sony took a gamble that worked well for them thanks to the PS3 having an insanly tough security. Still unhacked after so long, give Sony props where its due... the PS3 is piracy free.

100% Hardware backwards compatibility will not happen either. Only if the PS4 uses the CELL will it support hardware backwards compatibility with PS3 and even then it wont be 100%. Look at the PS2, it wasn't 100% with PS1 games and it had hardware support. Hell the SLIM didn't even have 100% with PS2 games... 60GB PS3's aren't even 100% and they are hardware aswell...

And last but not least, requiring 60FPS is stupid. Games do not need to be 60FPS. It's a magical number that people think the game requires it to be playable (snobby PC Gamers) but in honestly a locked 30FPS is good enough. Requiring no less then 30FPS should be the goal allowing devs some room. If you force 60FPS we wont get that much improvement in graphics late in the consoles life because of hardware limitations... remember consoles are suppose to last 5+ years.

Everything else is possible and/or supported now...

Yaboze
06-09-09, 11:57 PM
Ok, 30FPS is probably more realistic.

Since we have 720p now, why is 1080p not realistic?

MS is retarded if they put a DVD drive in their next console. What else is there? The only thing I can think of is a proprietary format, but will that work with DVD's?

The MS 360 HD is the biggest rip off....tighten up the system and allow people to upgrade their own drives.

What I mean by mouse and keyboard is..support it but don't require it. Even the Wii supports a USB keyboard I believe. I do agree it goes against the nature of a console but it could be handy for some folks.

I didn't know the PS3 couldn't install games, it just seems to install every time. Allow it as a choice but design them to run off the disk. That's all I am saying. MS didn't allow it for a while, allow it from the start was my point.

I don't think anything is unreasonable here, like I said, most of the items are ALREADY in the PS3 on my list.

|MaguS|
06-10-09, 12:12 AM
1080p for the next gen isn't unreasonable... but requiring 60FPS with 1080p is.

Game installs on the PS3 are optional by the developer. It's their choice if they want to install data onto the PS3 drive, sometimes a developer makes in manditory other times they make it optional... and most of the times its neither.

Like you said, both the Wii and PS3 support Keyboard and Mice, its up to the developer to program for it. None will because such a small percent of console users would actually bother.

fizzelopeguss
06-10-09, 06:19 AM
I doubt the ps4 will be a quantum leap, not after the outrageous profits the wii has been showing.

Buio
06-10-09, 09:51 AM
Getting 1080p 30fps and 60fps for some titles is fine, as long as they get rid of the lowres upscaled games.

Important for getting high resolutions and antialiasing is fast memory. The PS3 has 22.4GB/s for VRAM. The GT300 is rumored to have 256-282GB/s. With 7GHz GGDR5 it would reach ~448GB/s. Even with a scaled back 256-bit interface it would reach 224GB/s with the new GDDR5. Just a slight 10+ times increase and that is this year (maybe early next year for NVidia).

The thing is that next gen consoles are several years away so a lot will happen on the GPU/Memory side before they arrive. Of course a console can't have the most extreme configuration due to costs, but at least they will be at the performance front when released as usual. I believe both MS and Sony will work on performance and not go the way Wii has done. It could backfire and then they will be dead in water.

Indeed MS has to put a blu-ray in their next-gen console (and funny enough pay royalties to Sony).

|MaguS|
06-10-09, 10:14 AM
I doubt the ps4 will be a quantum leap, not after the outrageous profits the wii has been showing.

Developers will push them to make a more high end console then something like the Wii because the Wii has really only be profitable for Nintendo... 3rd Party games are dying on it.

Buio
06-10-09, 10:33 AM
Developers will push them to make a more high end console then something like the Wii because the Wii has really only be profitable for Nintendo... 3rd Party games are dying on it.

A big cost for Sony was the blu-ray and it wont be a cost factor for next generation. And yes, both MS and Sony will continue on the performance road.

Funny that both MS and Sony trying to go the Nintendo road controller wise. I would think it could be more interesting if a next gen console was released with a small sleek keyboard with a touchpad or trackpoint.

ViN86
06-10-09, 11:28 AM
Personally, my favorite part about the PS3 is it's higher-end hardware. BD, HDMI (from the start), Bluetooth (not the best, but still ok), built-in WiFi, KB&M support, Linux support, upgradeable hard drive, full PS BC (and older gens, full PS2 BC). It's all great and really sets the console head and shoulders apart from the 360.

Also, with the large number of exclusives set to launch within a year, the PS3 will be expanding its market.

fizzelopeguss
06-10-09, 01:32 PM
Developers will push them to make a more high end console then something like the Wii because the Wii has really only be profitable for Nintendo... 3rd Party games are dying on it.

Higher end consoles mean vastly bigger game budgets. As far as i'm aware there's been 54 million selling titles on the wii. Most 3rd party.

Toss3
06-10-09, 02:30 PM
Personally, my favorite part about the PS3 is it's higher-end hardware. BD, HDMI (from the start), Bluetooth (not the best, but still ok), built-in WiFi, KB&M support, Linux support, upgradeable hard drive, full PS BC (and older gens, full PS2 BC). It's all great and really sets the console head and shoulders apart from the 360.

Also, with the large number of exclusives set to launch within a year, the PS3 will be expanding its market.

Not to mention the 1000times higher life expectancy.. :p

Seriously my xbox360 just broke for the fourth time. :thumbdwn:

I really wish they put more time and energy into making the next-generation of consoles last longer(especially Microsoft) than they did this round. I also hope that they don't concentrate too much on keeping the consoles BC as that would mean that they would have to stick to a similar cpu-architecture instead of moving forward.

Buio
06-10-09, 02:32 PM
Higher end consoles mean vastly bigger game budgets. As far as i'm aware there's been 54 million selling titles on the wii. Most 3rd party.

No that is not true, not compared to what they are spending on current generation Sony and MS consoles. Also both MS and Sony have had good success with smaller and independent games via online distribution.

If Sony and MS would go the Nintendo way and make a cheap-ass console they could bomb totally, both losing their hard core gamers and the family gamers (which could continue to stick with Nintendo).

fizzelopeguss
06-10-09, 03:48 PM
If Sony and MS would go the Nintendo way and make a cheap-ass console they could bomb totally, both losing their hard core gamers and the family gamers (which could continue to stick with Nintendo).

Breaking even/making a profit on the hardware doesn't have to mean a weaksauce console. Funny you say the hardcore, aren't the two most popular games on the 360 halo 3 and cod 4, 2 games that don't look so hot, and aren't even HD for gods sake. :(

Buio
06-10-09, 05:04 PM
Breaking even/making a profit on the hardware doesn't have to mean a weaksauce console. Funny you say the hardcore, aren't the two most popular games on the 360 halo 3 and cod 4, 2 games that don't look so hot, and aren't even HD for gods sake. :(

No, but you also have to consider the console is several years away. I'm not sure GT300 (for example) will be mainstream then, but it will be a lot cheaper.

As for hardcore I meant relatively speaking, compared to the overall direction the console has. There is a lot of kid/family games on PC, but no one ever speaks of the PC as being a family gaming platform.