GT300 really low yields

[claytonx]

CEO selling stocks, along with low yields will give nVIDIA trouble next-generation.
http://www.semiaccurate.com/2009/09/15/nvidia-gt300-yeilds-under-2/

[Heinz68]

Nvidia GT300 yields are under 2%, that is VERY hard to believe.

[jolle]

Ill just copy paste my post from Rage3d..

The translation, as we read it, says there were nine good samples that came back from TSMC from the first hot lot.

So he´s refering to this translation:
NVIDIA GT300 is an Engineering sample of nine will be completed in January of this year's fastest 12 to begin shipping in January.
However, copy/paste that text (source (http://northwood.blog60.fc2.com/blog-entry-3105.html)) into babelfish japanese -> english and you get this:
NVIDIA makes Engineering sample of GT300 COMPLETE in September, with most speed starts of shipment in December of this year.

which obviously reads a bit different..
Now, I obviously havent done "the digging" that he did so..
EDIT: my guess is that the 9 was misstranslated from September, and the 12 from December.

[Mojoe]

From beyond3d.


GT212 will come out, maybe this year.. probably next year.
GT215/6/8 will have a very hard time competing (would've been different if they launched in Q209 as intended and not Q409) and GT300 is not set for another 9 months.
This is not the Apocalypse, it's the result of a design decision made way back when 40nm wasn't available. Tables can turn in 2010.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=49139&page=85

[josiahsuarez]

http://www.rage3d.com/board/showpost.php?p=1336014451&postcount=2
How does he expect anyone to take him seriously when all he does is rave about how bad things are going for all things Nvidia, and gloats about his claims like a 14 year old angry fanboy?
Wouldn´t put much stock in that, if there´s anything to it it´ll prolly come out of a real journalist sooner or later.

Quote:
The translation, as we read it, says there were nine good samples that came back from TSMC from the first hot lot.

So he´s refering to this translation:

Quote:
NVIDIA GT300 is an Engineering sample of nine will be completed in January of this year's fastest 12 to begin shipping in January.

However, copy/paste that text (source (http://northwood.blog60.fc2.com/blog-entry-3105.html)) into babelfish japanese -> english and you get this:

Quote:
NVIDIA makes Engineering sample of GT300 COMPLETE in September, with most speed starts of shipment in December of this year.

which obviously reads a bit different..
Now, I obviously havent done "the digging" that he did so..

EDIT: my guess is that the 9 was misstranslated from September, and the 12 from December.

[Yaboze]

Maybe Jen Hung Chung Fooyooey will now lower his ego a few notches.

[josiahsuarez]

this site:
http://translation.babylon.com/Japanese/to-English/#

translate charlies source (http://northwood.blog60.fc2.com/blog-entry-3105.html):
NVIDIAもAMDも2009年下半期にDirectX 11対応の最新GPUをローンチしようとしている。

NVIDIAはGT300のEngineering sampleを9月に完成させ、最速で今年の12月に出荷開始とする。
一方、AMDはRadeon HD 5800（RV870）を9月後半にローンチし、出荷を10月に予定している。Radeon HD 5800はまずRadeon HD 5870と5850の2モデルが投入される。
　
さらにAMDはフラッグシップモデルとなるDual-GPUカードを2009年第4四半期に予定している。このカードは“Hemlock”と呼ばれていたもので Radeon HD 4870X2の後継となる。製品名はRadeon HD 5870X2となると思われる。Radeon HD 5870X2の詳細は明かされていないが、2GBのGDDR5を搭載し、出力としてDisplayPort , HDMI, DVIを搭載するといわれている。

RV870とGT300については過去の情報とそれほど変化はありません。 GT300の方はまだ若干流動的要素がありますが、RV870は9月22日ローンチ・10月出荷の方向でだ いぶ固まってきています。9月10日には RV870に関するイベントもあるようで、その時に新たな情報が明かされることが期待されます。
Hardware-InfosにはRadeon HD 5800シリーズの価格が掲載されており、これによるとRadeon HD 5850が$279～299、5870が$379～399、5870X2が$599となっています。

into:
Both NVIDIA and AMD are going to do raunch of latest GPU for DirectX11 in the second half of the year in 2009.

NVIDIA completes Engineeringsample of GT300 in September and I am fastest and do shipment with starting in December of this year.

On the other hand, AMD does raunch of RadeonHD5800 (RV870) in the latter half of September and plans shipment in October. At first, as for RadeonHD5800, RadeonHD5870 and 5850-2 model are spent.

Furthermore, AMD schedules a Dual-GPU card becoming the flagship model for a fourth-quarter in 2009. This card becomes the succession of RadeonHD4870X2 with a thing called "Hemlock". It seems that the product name becomes RadeonHD5870X2. The details of RadeonHD5870X2 aren't revealed, but it carries GDDR5 of 2GB and is said to carry DisplayPort,HDMI,DVI as the output. There isn't the change with past information about RV870 and GT300 that much. The one of GT300 still has a few style dynamic element, but RV870 hardens considerably in the direction of .10 raunch Tsukide load on September 22. We seem to have the event about RV870 on September 10, and it is hoped that the sometimes new information is revealed. A price of the RadeonHD5800 series is printed in Hardware-Infos, and, according to this, $ 379-399, 5870X2 become $ 599 $ 279-299, 5870 RadeonHD5850.

different online translators give different results. google translate gives this:
NVIDIA and AMD in the second half of 2009 and the latest DirectX 11-capable GPU that is trying to launch.

NVIDIA GT300 is an Engineering sample of nine will be completed in January of this year's fastest 12 to begin shipping in January.
Meanwhile, AMD is Radeon HD 5800 (RV870) was launched in late May to September, the shipments are scheduled for July 10. First Radeon HD 5800 and Radeon HD 5870 will launch two models in 5850.

AMD has also become a Dual-GPU flagship card 2009 has been scheduled for the fourth quarter. This card is "Hemlock" in what was called the successor of the Radeon HD 4870X2. Radeon HD 5870X2 product names will be considered. Radeon HD 5870X2 has not disclosed details, 2GB of GDDR5 equipped with, as output DisplayPort, HDMI, DVI has been said that with.

GT300 and RV870 information about the past and do not change much. If there are elements that GT300 is still somewhat fluid, RV870 will launch September 22 and 10 come a long way in the direction of the ship this month finalized. Sun September 10 there will be events on the RV870, is expected to reveal new information at that time.
Hardware-Infos has the Radeon HD 5800 series on the price, according to the Radeon HD 5850 which is $ 279 - 299,5870 to $ 379 ~ 399,5870 X2 has become a $ 599.

the bold portion is what charlie used as the basis for his article.

charlie, ever eager to assume the worst for nvidia, grabs onto this translation error and uses it as evidence that the sky is falling on nvidia. ironically what the article actually says is that GT300 is launching in december. part of me says this might be a joke by charlie, although if it is it's very obscure and only questionably humorous. this line makes me think he might even be poking fun at himself:

Ouch. No, just sad. So sad that Nvidia doesn't deserve mocking, things have gone from funny to pathetic.

[Ancient76]

CEO selling stocks, along with low yields will give nVIDIA trouble next-generation.
http://www.semiaccurate.com/2009/09/15/nvidia-gt300-yeilds-under-2/

I have seen this yesterday and didn't want to post. And do you know why :)

[LydianKnight]

If it comes from Mr. Demerjian, it can't be credible... simple as that... journalism and personal hatred is not compatible when you're trying to tell something to the people...

[JH24]

There is such an obvious bias in Charlie’s articles, its just painful to read.


Still, it wouldn’t be entirely unbelievable if Nvidia did have some yield issues. AMD had the HD 4770 as testing card for 40 nm, I can imagine that Nvidia has some trouble now too.



Only time will tell… I hope its not true though. I’m really looking forward to at least see the GT 300 this year.

[saweetnesstrev]

Mindswell post it in this thread instead of creating another one. (conflicting reports on release date also)..

Source: http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15535/1/

Several people confirm

Nvidia is still not giving and hard details about its chip that we still call GT300 but one thing is getting quite certain. A few people who saw just leaked performance data on ATI's soon to launch Radeon HD 5870 have told Fudzilla that they are absolutely confident that GT300 will win over Radeon HD 5870.

Since GT300 has its GX2 brother they should not fear much against Radeon 5870 X2 whenever that comes out, as if Nvidia wins a single chip battle, they can win the dual one as well.

We can only confirm that GT300 is not a GT200 in 40nm with DirectX 11 support. It’s a brand new chip that was designed almost entirely from the ground up. Industry sources believe that this is the biggest change since G80 was launched and that you can expect such level of innovation and change.

The launch as far as we know is still slated for late November and hasn’t been confirmed.

[Fotis]

Arggg,too much conflicting info!!:|
I hope they can bring it out as soon as possible!!

[Mojoe]

Kyle has heard it as well that NV have yield problems.

Kyle_Bennett HardOCP Editor-in-Chief, 12.3 Years

FWIW, I heard very similar information from two other sources recently.

http://www.hardforum.com/showpost.php?p=1034622662&postcount=36

[doom3ed_player]

4 wafer , 7 working gpu . zomg nvidia is in bad shape .

[LydianKnight]

Not necessarily... it's still September 16th, let's just give 'em enough time for that numbers to raise (IF and ONLY IF the numbers are credible at all), anyway we already knew NVIDIA was going to be introducing their new products later than ATI, I don't think there's anything to worry about.

Even if they're facing that much problems and the release date slips beyond the predicted date... so what? You've been waiting all these months for NVIDIA's next-gen GPU, some more months is nothing (or shouldn't be).

NVIDIA's viral counter-measuring marketing doesn't help, neither does Mr. Demerjian's viral and free-of-any-objectiveness journalism, so my advice would be... just w-a-i-t

My (usual) 2 cents

[mtl]

Charlie is an imbecile who's been erroneously predicting disaster for Nvidia for years.

[ViN86]

If GT300 shows a fraction of the performance they claim it will have, then nvidia will still make a lot of money.

The author in the OP has a sound of content at nvidia's reported failure as well. Makes the source less credible than it already is and makes the author look like a blubbering idiot.

[JH24]

True, Nvidia will definitely make money when their new cards are released, if they are truly revolutionary, the balance could turn in their favor again.



However, that doesn't mean they don't have to hurry. AMD has all the spotlight and hype now, and based on the early numbers, their cards give nice performance increases and AMD has a complete line-up in store, with the mobile Radeon cards to follow soon after.


They need to do something to at least take some of AMD's spotlight away. A great way would be by presenting the card and some good numbers. (For example Crysis) If they can do that before AMD's cards are fully available in stores, then it would only benefit them as it tempts people to wait a little longer, rewarding them in the end.


Also, if AMD's numbers are to be believed, the HD 5800 series (5850, 5870, etc) is already capable of playing almost every game comfortably. For people who have extreme resolutions a GT300 would be perfect, otherwise it might not be that attractive for anyone who has already bought an AMD card. Unless Nvidia's cards offer unique extra's, like "free" or "new" AA, even more detailed filtering, etc.

[john19055]

I don't see how they can make a lot of money if thier yields is 1.7%,out of four wafers with a 104 possable on each they only got seven that was working. and getting maybe 2 workings ones out of one wafer,I dod'nt see how any money can be made.Hopely thier yields go up to 50%.But if they stay this bad ,there is no way they can make a november launch.I have a feeling that ATI is going to have a good showing this time around.Plus if the GT300 is not a whole lot faster then the HD5870 and only wins by 5 to 10FPS in games and cost $100 to $150 more ,the ATI may have the best deal anyway.

[Redeemed]

My expectations is that yields are far better than being reported here. However, I think ATi will be first to release, and will firmly hold the "price:performance" crown. That said, I also believe the GT300 will appear later, but it'll offer even better performance than the 5800. That said, being considerably larger and having poorer yields, nVidia will either have to sell them at a loss to maintain market share, or accept (a hopefully small) drop in market share and sell these for a profit (meaning they'd sell less units over all).

I do not think nVidia will have a repeat of the nV3x (GFFX) disaster. Not this generation, not the next one, quite possibly never again. However, I also think that nVidia will make mistakes, causing them to periodically lose their crown. This is good, as in the end it means the consumer wins. :)

I myself, have all but decided I'm getting at 2GB 5870. I'm making my official decision once the parts are available and I can see pricing and actual performance. But with the currently available information I'm pretty confident I'll be going ATi this round.

[john19055]

I have thought that too ,because the new HD5870 chip looks to be a great card ,if the benchmarks are true that I have seen against the GTX 285,it looks like it is almost twice as fast as the GTX285 even against the GTX295 the HD5870 looks real good,winning by pretty big margins in nearly all games.

[Heinz68]

Kyle has heard it as well that NV have yield problems.



http://www.hardforum.com/showpost.php?p=1034622662&postcount=36

Well I still hope it's not true but are we also going to call Kyle an imbecile or an idiot?

[josiahsuarez]

Well I still hope it's not true but are we also going to call Kyle an imbecile or an idiot?

Kyle didn't use a specious and obviously questionable computer translation to "prove" a personal wet dream of his. to do that you would have to either (a) be an idiot, and allow yourself to be fooled by an obvious translation error or (b) recognize the stupid nature of such an argument and publish it anyway.

[noko]

Only Nvidia really knows about this, has Nvidia refuted this or still quiet? I think this is just prodding from these folks to pry more info from Nvidia. Now if Nvidia actually has well working silicon and secretly gets it massed produced and blows away the competition that would be very amusing. Of course all those folks will blame their sources for what they said and take no reponsibility for saying it. Personally I think next year will be the GT300 release date based upon it usually takes a few revisions to get good silicon on very high end designs.

[shadow001]

Well,there is one large problem that most are ignoring here....The HD5870 is coming in a week from now at high volume retail for one,and the HD5870 X2 is slated for late october.


Now while i still believe that the GT300,when it eventually shows up,will beat the RV870 chip since it's got no choice in the matter,as we all know what happends when a product that ships later doesn't beat the current performance leader(it's labeled a flop).


But what about the HD5870 X2 version,knowing full well that performance wise and with good drivers,it can scale 75~80% over the single GPU version,and in the end,this is what we're talking about:


4.2 billion transistors across 2 GPU's,each at 338mm^ in size.
160 texture units.
64 Rops.
3200 shaders with a total of 5.4 terraflops of shading power,or for use in GP-GPU situations.
850Mhz Core clock speeds.
325GB/sec of memory bandwith.


This gentlemen is basically freakzilla,and a single GT300 won't beat that,and will likely require another GX2 type card using a pair of GT300 GPU's....Now if Nvidia are already having enough trouble getting the single GPU version out the door,when do you think they'll get around to releasing a dual GPU version than can beat an HD5870 X2,which could be coming out in a little over a month from now.