View Full Version : Damage contol predictions
Anyone want to guess how Nvidia is going to wiggle out of the 51.75 driver fiasco?
Multiple personalities, first they want them used in benchmarks stating that using any other driver is invalid. Now they do an about face and say the 51.75s are too beta to be used.
I think they are beginning to forget which lies they told and are mixing them up.
If you believed OJ Simpson was innocent then I guess you could believe Nvidia is a honest up front company that would never cheat on drivers.
I think just about anyone in this forum could come up with better excuses than they have used.
digitalwanderer
09-16-03, 08:54 PM
They already have explained it and they won't explain it any further, same as the pulling of the TRAOD patch...the little blurb by Eidos is all we'll ever get in the way of "official" word. :(
The sad thing is that the number of the people in-the-know regarding nVidia's recent blunders is miniscule compared to the public consumer base.
Which is changing slowly, but not enough to affect the entire graphics market right at this moment.
I don't think they can "wiggle out" of anything anymore.
Every move they make is being watched (IE> Tomb Raider Patch with Benchmark code, removed today).
The community is way pissed off.
Only thing they can do is... do the best they can with drivers for the NV3x... ride this out... fix the PS 2.0 problem before NV40 Taps out... and pray they can get people to trust them again.
/shrug
Taz
That's the difference between the majority of the graphic-buying market and the enthusiasts. The majority will buy one brand and generally stick with it, because they really don't care so long as it doesn't give them major problems and performs OK (NV3x specific paths and optimized drivers will ensure this, plus PR).
On the other hand, "enthusiasts" will jump ship in a second if a competitor is proved superior... Sort of like a pissing contest or "size matters" contest. Second best is dead last mentality.
I would wager that despite its nonstandard configuration, Nvidia has done quite well with the NV3x series, simply because the mainstream $99 "DX9" cards were there in Best Buy for all to pick up. Nvidia had all the checkboxes on the back of the box filled for a cheaper price than the competitor. And, unless someone reads graphics forums, they will really have no idea (and probably dont care) that their FX is not using FP32 all the time, and may not perform as well in games like HL2. Point is, it seems PR and general public perception matters more than actual card performance in terms of sales. The only problem Nvidia will face in the future is if NV40 stinks, and the stench eventually gets back to major news sources that the general public reads, or if ATI manages do a better job of promoting themselves in the retail and oem sectors. Remember, ATI has been around for a long time, and most of that time they have sucked. They lost to S3, Matrox, and Tseng in the 2D days and they lost to Nvidia and 3dfx in the early 3d days. Yet they still managed all this time because they filled their checkboxes and covered their retail and oem bases well. In other words, seems like its all marketing and features.
digitalwanderer
09-16-03, 09:15 PM
Originally posted by Moo
The sad thing is that the number of the people in-the-know regarding nVidia's recent blunders is miniscule compared to the public consumer base.
Which is changing slowly, but not enough to affect the entire graphics market right at this moment.
True, but as soon as Half-life2 comes out that all will change and it'll make the benchmark fiasco seem like just another day on the boards! :lol:
My wife got me a subscription to "Playboy" and I just got the first issue a few weeks ago, (I think she wanted it for the articles, but I'm too pleased at the notion to really bitch. ;) ), and it has a spread on Half-life2 in it...MONTHS before the game comes out there is a spread on it in Playboy?!?
Nope. The sheet has hit the fan, but the rest of the world probably won't notice until Half-life2 is actually out....THEN it is going to be "endgame" time. :cool:
Cassius
09-16-03, 09:22 PM
Actualy the general public aint the most important factor
the OEMs are
as soon as OEMs start noticing this **** and start switching - that is when nvidia will really start hurting
Originally posted by digitalwanderer
True, but as soon as Half-life2 comes out that all will change and it'll make the benchmark fiasco seem like just another day on the boards! :lol:
Nope. The sheet has hit the fan, but the rest of the world probably won't notice until Half-life2 is actually out....THEN it is going to be "endgame" time. :cool:
I disagree. How many average consumers have both an Nvidia and ATI card to do A/B IQ HL2 comparisons with. Further, how many have the time to partake in such an exercise. Obviously HL2 is going to run well on *any* of the Nvidia cards if it can run on XBOX - settings may have to be dialed down, but odds are most of that will be automatic from Valve's statements thus far. People who bought FX5200 and FX5600 cards will be running HL2 at 30-60fps in DX8.1 mode, and likely won't even know (or care) that they aren't getting the full DX9 treatment as even DX8.1 will likely still look killer and probably be perceived as a next-gen dx9 game despite it running in dx8.1. Plus, when the Det50s are out, 5900s will easily do Hl2 at 60+fps in the default nv3x codepath (since they are already doing 50+ fps), and I don't see any average consumer tinkering around with using different shader precisions, etc...
Nvidia has done a fine job of marketing a DX9 product that looks like it wasn't ready for DX9 yet - and most will not know any better (or care).
Originally posted by Ruined
On the other hand, "enthusiasts" will jump ship in a second if a competitor is proved superior... Sort of like a pissing contest or "size matters" contest. Second best is dead last mentality.
Well... I think it's a "trickledown effect".
A lot of us "Enthusiasts" are also "IT professionals".
There are a lot of people that rely on my recommendation of hardware, even though I don't have a Hardware review site. I suspect many other "enthusiasts" are in the same situation as me (whether they are IT professionals or not... they KNOW hardware, and their friends / aquaintances respect their opinions).
My point is... the negative press may not hit the "average user" for quite some time... but the word of mouth from the professional / enthusiast community will hit "average user" much quicker.
So I think it's a lot worse than people think. Over the last week I'm fairly shocked at how many "average users" are jumping ship, that I know. People are more informed than I thought.
Regards,
Taz
Originally posted by TheTaz
My point is... the negative press may not hit the "average user" for quite some time... but the word of mouth from the professional community will hit "average user" much quicker.
I don't think the professional community is really all that involved with the average user, AFAIK. I would think most graphics cards are moved in retail chains like Best Buy, CompUSA, etc, or in brand new PCs. In either case, IT professionals really don't play a particularly large role. In the stores, sales are driven by low prices, nice feature sets, and salesmen working on commission that sell what their boss tells them to sell. In the OEM market, sales are driven by whatever brand a particular company considers their "preferred" brand (i.e. the one that made a deal with them). Most of these companies (i.e. Alienware, Dell, etc) are influenced a lot more by cash and featuresets from Nvidia or ATI than by actual performance.
Miester_V
09-16-03, 09:34 PM
I really don't think nVidia is going anywhere, even if they don't deserve to stay after they way they've handled everything. At least I hope that they *will* sooner or later learn their lesson. Surely they can't be that ignorant of the news being spread around the gaming industry. If this doesn't wake them up, then I guess it would be better if they stayed asleep, permanently.
Cassius
09-16-03, 09:35 PM
what about the IT professionals that places like Best Buy and CompUSA hire to advise them on what to stock? :P
digitalwanderer
09-16-03, 09:36 PM
Originally posted by Ruined
I disagree. How many average consumers have both an Nvidia and ATI card to do A/B IQ HL2 comparisons with. Further, how many have the time to partake in such an exercise. Obviously HL2 is going to run well on *any* of the Nvidia cards if it can run on XBOX - settings may have to be dialed down, but odds are most of that will be automatic from Valve's statements thus far. People who bought FX5200 and FX5600 cards will be running HL2 at 30-60fps in DX8.1 mode, and likely won't even know (or care) that they aren't getting the full DX9 treatment as even DX8.1 will likely still look killer and probably be perceived as a next-gen dx9 game despite it running in dx8.1. Plus, when the Det50s are out, 5900s will easily do Hl2 at 60+fps in the default nv3x codepath (since they are already doing 50+ fps), and I don't see any average consumer tinkering around with using different shader precisions, etc...
Nvidia has done a fine job of marketing a DX9 product that looks like it wasn't ready for DX9 yet - and most will not know any better (or care).
I respectfully disagree. I think that the stunning new graphics are going to be a major selling point/reporting point of this game and from all reports it's supposed to be a VERY noticable visual difference. :)
Time will tell, time will tell. :cool:
Originally posted by digitalwanderer
I respectfully disagree. I think that the stunning new graphics are going to be a major selling point/reporting point of this game and from all reports it's supposed to be a VERY noticable visual difference. :)
Time will tell, time will tell. :cool:
But what "stunning new graphics" will people be able to differentiate between a mixed FP16/FP32 and straight FP24 precisions, assuming both run smoothly? And, if you paid under $100 for a card, I doubt stunning new graphics was high on your priority list, so dx8.1 probably won't be an issue. The average guy isn't going to study which card has a better filtering method, which card has better lighting, etc, because they will only have one card. And odds are if they ever see another card on a friend's machine they probably won't even notice the difference, especially if we need flash presentations, rollovers, or A/B screenshots to see the difference.
Honestly, I'd bet the majority of the population think XBOX's GeForce3 would be considered 'Stunning New Graphics.' Look at all the hype and commotion about Halo2's 'stunning visuals' out there - and thats completely integer, on a P3-733mhz GeForce3 at 640x480 with no AA or AF. Puts things in perspective I think.
Originally posted by Cassius
what about the IT professionals that places like Best Buy and CompUSA hire to advise them on what to stock? :P
Considering my local CompUSA still regularly stocks TNT2 cards, I don't think Nvidia has much to worry about there ;) In fact, I'd say the card I've seen on most store shelves these days are GeForce4 MX and FX5200 cards, with the occasional smattering of FX5600 256mbs, FX5900s, and ATI cards.
If you want to make an argument about Nvidia screwing themselves, I think you'd be better off by detailing how companies like eVGA, MSI, and Gainward have to deal with constant complaints about flickering (fixed finally) and strange card noises when scrolling, with no solution to their users (until recently) other than 'Nvidia is looking into it.' These companies might be a bit miffed about the whole dumping the FX5800 in a month thing, too. I'd guess Nvidia gave them a rebate on those so they didnt lose any money anyway, though.
Originally posted by Ruined
I don't think the professional community is really all that involved with the average user, AFAIK. I would think most graphics cards are moved in retail chains like Best Buy, CompUSA, etc, or in brand new PCs. In either case, IT professionals really don't play a particularly large role.
One IT professional by himself / herself. No... you are right. But a large consensus, is different.
However, it has been my experience that people that know some "IT GUY / GAL " ( Or even a super talented enthusiast) always ask his / her advice first, before making a purchase. I mean a lot of people know that the "Guy at Best Buy" is out to make a commission... so trust is limited. They ask someone they trust, first. (Well... the cautious consumer).
If 25 or so people ask my recommendation for hardware within a month... Does it it hurt the company I recommend against? No. If a multitude of IT people (Or heavy enthusiasts) are recommending the same thing / way.... that's multitudes of 25 people per month buying in a certain direction.... and that DOES hurt.
What I'm trying to say is... a LOT of us are "video card enthusiasts".... piss a LOT of us off... it's gonna hurt in the long run. :D Word of mouth is STILL king. Over the years you would see, just in game forums alone, "This game runs like sh!t on my PC"... and most people would say "Get and nVidia XXXX card"... it's already starting to go the opposite way and not many true DX9 games are out, yet.
Regards,
Taz
Cassius
09-16-03, 10:00 PM
Ruined
compUSA and best buy were really bad examples on my part
i only used them because you mentioned them in your post
your probably right that they wont be effected
but some of the better more informed OEMs might change in light of this
Yeah, recently some computer manufacturers (Dell, Gateway, and I think a few others) announced that they will be using ATI cards soon. However, they can change very quickly, even companies like Alienware jumped right from the TI4600 to the 9700 as soon as they were availible, simply because they chose the fastest availible at the time. I think a few of their comps used the FX5800 for a time right when they came out, but ever since the 9800 was released that's all they've using in their high-end machines, and now the 9600 (I think) in their mid-range machines. I'll bet that when the FX40 or even the FX38 come out (if it's a substantial improvement in PS 2.0 stuff), Alienware will switch their high-end stuff back to Nvidia. It all just depends on whatever is the fastest at the time.
However, I think places like Newegg would be most affected by people's recent perceptions of the FX series, since many people will probably be RMAing their FX5900s back (though it will still only a small percentage of total FX5900 users). Other then that, retail stores will be almost unaffected, since budget cards are the main sellers there.
But I really doubt Nvidia will be PERMANANTLY hurt by this, unless they manage to screw up their next card as well. In 2 years, the whole NV3x story will be old news, and people will move on to bigger and better cards. Of course, there will be a few that will be affected by this that will make them stay away from ALL Nvidia cards in the future, just as many ATI users from the Geforce 2 era still avoid ATI cards because of the driver issues with it, but they will be in the minority. When cards get taken off the shelves, that's when you can tell the company is in trouble, but right now Nvidia is still right up there with ATI (hell, a lot of stores still stock GF2MX cards).
I agree that word of mouth can really make a difference in retail and online sales. I have personally steered at least 6 or 7 people to choose an ATI card in the last few months alone. If there are say 10,000 of us in a given region who influence just a few customers each, we could do some damage to NV sales. Especially on the high end.
They tell 3 people and they tell 3 people and so on and so on and so on.... Jeeez I sound like a shampoo commercial! ;)
PS: Best Buy people do not get commissions.
I agree, I was at a Best Buy today and talked with three of the computer area personal and they all said Radeon was the way to go. That was not the tone last year. Word does get around, I have many people ask me what to buy etc. I'm not pointing them to Nvidia anymore.
Originally posted by TheTaz
One IT professional by himself / herself. No... you are right. But a large consensus, is different.
However, it has been my experience that people that know some "IT GUY / GAL " ( Or even a super talented enthusiast) always ask his / her advice first, before making a purchase. I mean a lot of people know that the "Guy at Best Buy" is out to make a commission... so trust is limited. They ask someone they trust, first. (Well... the cautious consumer).
If 25 or so people ask my recommendation for hardware within a month... Does it it hurt the company I recommend against? No. If a multitude of IT people (Or heavy enthusiasts) are recommending the same thing / way.... that's multitudes of 25 people per month buying in a certain direction.... and that DOES hurt.
What I'm trying to say is... a LOT of us are "video card enthusiasts".... piss a LOT of us off... it's gonna hurt in the long run. :D Word of mouth is STILL king. Over the years you would see, just in game forums alone, "This game runs like sh!t on my PC"... and most people would say "Get and nVidia XXXX card"... it's already starting to go the opposite way and not many true DX9 games are out, yet.
Regards,
Taz
StealthHawk
09-17-03, 02:41 AM
Originally posted by Ruined
I don't think the professional community is really all that involved with the average user, AFAIK. I would think most graphics cards are moved in retail chains like Best Buy, CompUSA, etc, or in brand new PCs. In either case, IT professionals really don't play a particularly large role. In the stores, sales are driven by low prices, nice feature sets, and salesmen working on commission that sell what their boss tells them to sell. In the OEM market, sales are driven by whatever brand a particular company considers their "preferred" brand (i.e. the one that made a deal with them). Most of these companies (i.e. Alienware, Dell, etc) are influenced a lot more by cash and featuresets from Nvidia or ATI than by actual performance.
Most people do not simply walk into a store totally clueless about what they want/need. They will ask a store rep for recommendations, ask their friends, read magazine reviews, or read website reviews. While they may not understand or know about any of the issues, they will at least remember the best brand. Word of mouth is powerful.
On the other hand, "enthusiasts" will jump ship in a second if a competitor is proved superior... Sort of like a pissing contest or "size matters" contest. Second best is dead last mentality.
Or perhaps people want the best bang for their buck? As has been said, looking at the gfFX by itself it is not a bad product. But when comparing it with better products it looks much weaker. Therein lies the point.
jimbob0i0
09-17-03, 04:10 AM
Ruined the point where people will notice a big diffenece is when HDR effects are included... peeps will see HL2 running on their friend's computer with lovely reflection/bloom/etc effects and these are what the magazines will publish as screenshots as they look so pretty... and then comes along joe blogg with his GFFX 'DX9' card which fails to render those effects - that difference is noticeable. Also don't discount the mod authors - when DoD, CS, etc are ported over to the HL2 engine and new MODs are created - not to mention new content for the game released by Valve - those will be using DX9 shaders which, as we know, will barely run on GFFX hardware... not some dodgy thing NV has knocked up... then the 'sheet' really will hit the fan :P
Originally posted by Edge
However, they can change very quickly, even companies like Alienware jumped right from the TI4600 to the 9700 as soon as they were availible, simply because they chose the fastest availible at the time. I think a few of their comps used the FX5800 for a time right when they came out, but ever since the 9800 was released that's all they've using in their high-end machines, and now the 9600 (I think) in their mid-range machines. I'll bet that when the FX40 or even the FX38 come out (if it's a substantial improvement in PS 2.0 stuff), Alienware will switch their high-end stuff back to Nvidia. It all just depends on whatever is the fastest at the time.
Alienware by default has for the past few months, and still, uses Nvidia's FX series in all of their machines. High end has FX5900, mid-range has FX5600. Dell goes with ATI on their high end. Gateway goes with Nvidia.
Originally posted by Spotch
I agree that word of mouth can really make a difference in retail and online sales. I have personally steered at least 6 or 7 people to choose an ATI card in the last few months alone. If there are say 10,000 of us in a given region who influence just a few customers each, we could do some damage to NV sales. Especially on the high end.
They tell 3 people and they tell 3 people and so on and so on and so on.... Jeeez I sound like a shampoo commercial! ;)
PS: Best Buy people do not get commissions.
Right... Word of mouth is STILL most trusted in this "Market Spam Age".
As for Best Buy people not getting commissions... ok... The point is that most people will trust a Friend / Professional that they know, more than a salesperson at a retail store.
Originally posted by goblin
I agree, I was at a Best Buy today and talked with three of the computer area personal and they all said Radeon was the way to go. That was not the tone last year. Word does get around, I have many people ask me what to buy etc. I'm not pointing them to Nvidia anymore.
Well... then it's already "Trickled Down" that far. Hence I stick to my opinion that is IS worse than some people think. ;)
Originally posted by StealthHawk
Most people do not simply walk into a store totally clueless about what they want/need. They will ask a store rep for recommendations, ask their friends, read magazine reviews, or read website reviews. While they may not understand or know about any of the issues, they will at least remember the best brand. Word of mouth is powerful.
...
Or perhaps people want the best bang for their buck? As has been said, looking at the gfFX by itself it is not a bad product. But when comparing it with better products it looks much weaker. Therein lies the point.
That's what I was trying to emphasize.... Word of mouth being powerful.
And I've always tried to steer people towards "Most bang for buck", unless someone is dead set on getting "Top of the line". ;)
Regards,
Taz
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