How much time before true environment simulation will be possible

[druga runda]

Meaning real photo realistic environments with physics working on all objects/items? We are still fairly far away, Dawn looks really good but there is a lot more to go trough before true simulation is possible...

so in 2 years time with r500 it will be even better,
give it 2 more for new r500 tech to mature,
another 2 years for some good real time effects
that is in 6 years we should be close but give it double that and a little more for the whole entertainment to have standard "real life capable" games/environments..

At this rough pace of doubling every 18 months for processor/ gpu speeds abilities what do we need 15-20 years? What would that give us 1000-4000x more processing power than we have today+ all the new cool technologies to get better results from available power...

Is that enough, or will we develop faster?

Just spendin' my day at work with e-mail down, that's all... if you wander what got to me ;)

[Paul]

http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7621

[druga runda]

that was a good read ;)

[delta]

Check out http://www.foresight.org/EOC/ for some more good reading on "environment simulators" and other advanced tech.

[Hellbinder]

I dont know.. But I want to be able to plug my ass into a Alternate reality simulator for at least the last 10 years of my life. Starting Somewhere around 2030 i hope ;)

I really want to be a Super hero and do cool stuff.. or something like that there.

(Better start saving cash now for that 10 year supply of Protien nutrient IV's.)

[GlowStick]

Originally posted by Hellbinder
(Better start saving cash now for that 10 year supply of Protien nutrient IV's.) Been there, done that!

[-=DVS=-]

How much time before true environment simulation will be possible

When StarTrek becomes reality ;) :D

[GlowStick]

Originally posted by -=DVS=-
How much time before true environment simulation will be possible

When StarTrek becomes reality ;) :D Star Trek is real!

[druga runda]

Originally posted by -=DVS=-
How much time before true environment simulation will be possible

When StarTrek becomes reality ;) :D

Well as the guy on B3D I was thinking "real" as perception - photorealistic would be a better term, or as good as current monitors can project so that it looks real + add really good physics so that the objects have physical properties, so you have gravity/denity/friction in place to simulate the reality on a relatively decent level. ie the curtains burn faster than the wooden drawer, and similar...

If we went even further one can imagine that the charachter models in the future will have proper skeleton models underneath and different texture properties for muscles, bones, etc... but that is going too far. It is enough that he looks real as you see him and it looks like a current normal film @ 1600*1200 resolution or higher... that is what I was thinking about...

[Ninja Prime]

That depends on what you consider true environment. By 2006 consoles and PC will be capable of graphics that match some of todays movies. I don't think they(developers) will really ever feel the need to get much more realistic than that. 5 million polys per frame and 50 million polys per frame look about the same if done right. If for some odd reason they want to push further, then by 2010 they will be able to easily do 100+ million polys per frame, allowing them to make games look just like real life, if done right. Mmmm 2010... 25nm process, with 800+ million transitors runnning at 10GHZ... tasty. :drooling:

[-=DVS=-]

Actually games already look real life like with good textures ;)
http://www.rockstargames.com/maxpayne2/ss/screen_s03.jpg
http://www.rockstargames.com/maxpayne2/ss/screen_s05.jpg
http://www.rockstargames.com/maxpayne2/ss/screen_s01.jpg
:eek:

Max Payne 2 is awesome.

[StealthHawk]

Originally posted by Ninja Prime
That depends on what you consider true environment. By 2006 consoles and PC will be capable of graphics that match some of todays movies.

I disagree. Not in real time. I'll be surprised if we can even get something like Toy Story in real time...which still doesn't look as good as today's movies, let alone reality.

[1stFlight]

One thing that I disagree with that thread about is, you don't have to make render "reality", you just have to do well enough to fool human senses...

Which as we've seen, doesn't take the real thing.

[StealthHawk]

Originally posted by 1stFlight
One thing that I disagree with that thread about is, you don't have to make render "reality", you just have to do well enough to fool human senses...

Which as we've seen, doesn't take the real thing.

That's because humans have a WOW factor that skews their perceptions. So let me recant a few stories using personal experience and the experiences of some people I know.

Final Fantasy6 comes out in Japan and my friend brings it over to my house. When I see the battle scenes they are absolutely beautiful. The backgrounds look real, at least that was my first impression. In retrospect, the backgrounds do not look real at all. The fact is that the graphics were at a level beyond something I had ever seen in a game, hence my initial reaction.

Toy Story the movie is released. I hear people talking about how it "looks like real life." When I see the movie I come to these conclusions: Some things look pretty real. Other things are clearly computer generated, and do not look real at all. In other words, Toy Story is not at the "realism" level, nor has any purely CG movie achieved that yet.

Bring on Max Payne2. From still shots it looks amazing. Of course these shots aren't full screen, nor are they showing motion. There is more to reality than just texture work. There is animation. Physics. Sound. Are there HDR lighting effects? Is there dynamic real-time lighting and shadowing?

Groundbreaking games/events/movies are always shocking because they are at a level above things we've previously seen. Younger people tend to be influenced easier and exaggerate more as well. Once DX8/9 level games become standard I doubt anyone will be making statements like "this DX9 game looks real!" People are just excited by new things. And rightly so.

[Ninja Prime]

Originally posted by StealthHawk
nor has any purely CG movie achieved that yet.

I don't know about that, Final Fantasy: Spirits Within may have. First time I saw the previews with my friends we had to debate and watch it a few times to tell if it was real or not. In hindsight, it's not that hard to tell now, but still, I'd say it's on the edge of reality. As I recall some CG guru saying "Reality begins at 80 million polygons per frame." We will probably hit that by 2007 or 2008, I would guess.

[Remi]

Sorry, I don't have the reference, but I do remember that at last year's Siggraph, someone having seen 80 million polygons pictures told that in his opinion it proved that rule wrong.

just my 2 cents...

[Matthius]

toy story cgi is shockin. go back and have another look at it. its worse than you'd remember. half life 2, doom3 and even max payne 2 have better graphics than that now. and there in real time.

[Viral]

December 3, 2042... just in time for x-mas.:rolleyes:

[rwolf]

Originally posted by Matthius
toy story cgi is shockin. go back and have another look at it. its worse than you'd remember. half life 2, doom3 and even max payne 2 have better graphics than that now. and there in real time.


Games have great graphics for really short sequences.

[StealthHawk]

Originally posted by Matthius
toy story cgi is shockin. go back and have another look at it. its worse than you'd remember. half life 2, doom3 and even max payne 2 have better graphics than that now. and there in real time.

I haven't played Max Payne2 yet but somehow I really, really doubt that.

The most deciding factor for me in distinguishing games from "reality" has always been texture quality(as opposed to polygon count, effects, physics, filtering, jaggies, etc). Doom3 does not look more real than Toy Story as far as I remember. Doom3 models are not smooth. I don't remember Toy Story characters looking jagged.

Seeing as how neither Doom3 nor Half-Life2 are out though, the point is moot.

[AthlonXP1800]

True enviroment simulation is now appearing in Stalker and Out Run 2.

[nutball]

Originally posted by AthlonXP1800
True enviroment simulation is now appearing in Stalker and Out Run 2.

:confused: What do you mean by "true"?

[AthlonXP1800]

Originally posted by nutball
:confused: What do you mean by "true"?

:rolleyes: I think you cant read this thread's topic, it read "How much time before true enviroment simulation will be possible" :p

Anyway I will give you the links for Stalker and Out Run 2 game clips:

Stalker Oblivion (http://www.gamershell.com/download_4133.shtml) - 46.4Mb

Out Run 2 (http://www.sega-am2.co.jp/img/download/mv/outrun2/or2adv.mpg) - 10.7Mb

[The Baron]

maybe you smoke crack and as a result the world looks all funky and pixelated, but no, Stalker and Out Run 2 IN NO WAY APPROACH REALISM.

[Hanners]

Originally posted by The Baron
maybe you smoke crack and as a result the world looks all funky and pixelated, but no, Stalker and Out Run 2 IN NO WAY APPROACH REALISM.

:rofl

Couldn't have said it better myself.