NV30 not taped out yet?

[Megatron]

For those who dont make it to rage3D. There was an interesting thread there that has a link you may want to check out.

Hehehe...If true..ATI is doing the laughing now. Going to be a good christmas season for the boys/girls in red.:D

http://www.rage3d.com/board/showthread.php?s=&threadid=33628954

[netviper13]

I dunno, but there sure has been a lot of action on the NV30 front lately. I'm actually fairly sure that can't be accurate, as nVidia's CEO said announcement of the next-generation chip would occur in August. 4 months from announcement to release is corporate suicide.

[[Corporal Dan]]

Oh, you mean communists.

Yes.

I suppose it will be a good christmas.

They have behaved themselves all year and santa's gonna be good to them!

[Chalnoth]

Actually, I just read recently that the NV30 will ship in volume in October (I was expecting a November release at the time, actually).

This late in development, I'd say that the data is very accurate.

[Bigus Dickus]

Originally posted by Chalnoth
Actually, I just read recently that the NV30 will ship in volume in October (I was expecting a November release at the time, actually).

This late in development, I'd say that the data is very accurate.

We'll see. nVIDIA is going to have to pull off the fastest tape-out to full production ramp in history.

[StealthHawk]

the stock went up 7% today :p hard to believe with such bad news don't you think?

[noname]

Originally posted by StealthHawk
the stock went up 7% today :p hard to believe with such bad news don't you think?

you might want to check out the aftermarket quotes when the bad news broke. it got hammered.... down 24%... here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nvda&d=e)

noname

[Megatron]

Originally posted by Chalnoth
Actually, I just read recently that the NV30 will ship in volume in October (I was expecting a November release at the time, actually).

As of today the Nv30 was still not taped out.
In the past Nvidia has averaged about 100 days from finishing taping out to getting production..but these averages were with "refreshed parts" .
Do you believe they will be able to make the same speed with a new product? Or will it not matter at that point?
On the conference call Huang (spelling? ) sounded a little shaky when answering the Nv30 questions he was asked. And said they were hopeful they could keep up the timetable they have in the past...but it didnt sound like he was sure if they could or could not meet this same speed.

If they do ship any in October or November, i think they will be very very limited quantities at best. But well just have to wait and see obviously.

[Megatron]

Originally posted by [Corporal Dan]
Oh, you mean communists.

Yes.

I suppose it will be a good christmas.

They have behaved themselves all year and santa's gonna be good to them!


ROFL.:D :D

[netviper13]

The road to .13 is a long and shaky one, but I think it will pay off for nVidia in the end.

[Clockwork]

netviper13 and Chalnoth, I find it very interesting that you were so quick to challenge the accuracy of this news.

Maybe after realizing this news came directly from Jen-Hsun Huang's mouth you will finally accept it as the truth. (In addition to nVidia's hefty stock decrease today)

Don't take this as a flame, I just hate to see you guys embarrass yourselves.

[StealthHawk]

Originally posted by noname


you might want to check out the aftermarket quotes when the bad news broke. it got hammered.... down 24%... here (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nvda&d=e)

noname

hmm, indeed. it would seem that today's increase was attributed to the fact that nvidia declared it would decrease production with TSMC and give more of its business to UMC

[SurfMonkey]

I would guess that something is seriously amiss in the nVidia house at the moment.

Richard Huddy and bunch of others left to startup their own business, the CTO has just stepped down. Not good signs :(

The move to .13u will pay off in the long run if nVidia gets it to work as planned. In real terms it will probably give them a four to five month lead in design time over ATi. It's no mean feat to move your architecture over from .15u to .13u. Most automated tools don't work and an awful lot of the re-design has to be done by hand.

I would guess that the move to UMC is probably the .15u designs with the .13u NV3x still being fabbed at TSMC, otherwise nVidia are just screwing themselves over with a whole new bunch of issues involved in moving from one fab to another.

If the NV3x taped out originally at .15u then that may mean that they have samples running at some rediculously low core speed, maybe ~200MHz, which they are using for driver development. Also the original tape out may have used a 128bit memory bus. And now they want to inlcude a 256bit memory bus.

I can see an internal fight going on between the people who want to improve the IQ above all else, and the people who want to keep the FPS crown.

All in all it doesn't sound to healthy. Then again it may all be pure fabrication (sic) and an amazing piece of mis-direction which maybe why the CEO sounded so nervous when he was saying it hadn't taped out yet, telling porkies ;). Or then again he may just have been nervous because he promised it would be out this fall and now it's all gone pear shaped and so he was telling porkies at the previous meeting.

Whatever happens I really hope that this Christmas isn't a one horse race. The price of the R300 will never drop and if there is only one company left at the top, ATi, then it's bad, bad news for all the consumers.

[StealthHawk]

nvidia has stated for a long time now that NV30 would be using the .13 process.

um, what .15 designs? i am unaware of any nvidia video cards that will see the light of day that are on .15.

UMC apparently told investors that Nvidia will cut its orders with number one foundry TSMC from 140,000 parts in the first quarter to 30,000 parts in Q3.

Presumably, UMC will pick up the slack, which is presumably why the whole thing is mentioned at all.

http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=4681

[SurfMonkey]

The GF4 series are all .15u chips. Maybe they are moving production of that series over to UMC so that TSMC can concentrate on the .13u process. And that's why UMC will be picking up the slack.

[LORD-eX-Bu]

To me it doesn't matter if the NV30 is released Early or late 4th quarter, It doesn't even matter to me if it has to be released till the first quarter of 2003. I have a GF4 in my crud rig and thats all I need for now until NV30 is out. By then I should have a 3.06 ghz P4 so that should make my GF4 work better. Its gonna be great. Even if the card is being released after the 9700 it doesn't matter cuz the NV30 rapes the 9700. The pixel shaders are way better and go beyond the 9700's capability. So does the core and memory speeds. Everything about this card sounds good and I am willing to wait. Good things come to those who wait, or so I've heard.

[pelly]

Imagine what an uproar there would be if Nvidia was playing possum this whole time.....ATI takes it easy and then one day....out of the blue......NV30!

That would be a knock-out punch for sure...

If only that would happen....I would be a happy camper...

:D

[Megatron]

Originally posted by |TX|-LORD-EX-BU
Even if the card is being released after the 9700 it doesn't matter cuz the NV30 rapes the 9700. The pixel shaders are way better and go beyond the 9700's capability. So does the core and memory speeds. Everything about this card sounds good and I am willing to wait.

....and it also offers world peace...

lol...seriously man, where do you get info that it rapes the 9700. Heck noone (even Nvidia at this stage of completion)knows what the core and memory speeds are going to be.
Not one comparison has been made between these 2 cards yet...so whether it will rape the 9700 or get raped BY the 9700 remains to be seen.

[darkmiasma]

as much as i wish they were playing possum ... i highly doubt that is the case ...

but we can all hope right ...

- mike

[Megatron]

Originally posted by pelly
Imagine what an uproar there would be if Nvidia was playing possum this whole time.....

Yeah the uproar would come from nvidias own investors who are the only ones suffering as they watch their stock values plummet.The knock out punch wouldnt land on ATIs chin, but Nvidias own if this was the case.

Its just not the case.

[pelly]

Don't think that I was at all serious about that comment....it was just a playful comment thrown out for s*#@'s and grins.

Do I think this would have any negative effect upon the stockholders? No...I honestly don't. The thing that is killing Nvidia right now is the poor performance of TSMC and the slow ( pre-price cut ) sales of the Xbox. There situation certainly isn't helped by the slow sales of Apples these days...

I think that a shot out of the blue would capture a TON of market share from ATI. If NV30 is anywhere near as good as its being hyped-up to be...Nvidia would be in fantastic shape. Reviewers would finally have a card from each company which were released at relatively the same time ( vs. the usual 4-6months apart ). This way, the usual excuse ( "it's a newer card, it should outperform" ) is out the window...If Nvidia could beat ATI here, you'd have a ton of people gaming with some version of the NV30.

Likewise, if the R300 outperformed NV30...ATI would gain a ton of market share....

Only time will tell....in my eyes....its a win/win situation as we know that both cards are going to be insanely fast!

:D

[Bigus Dickus]

I seriously hope you are just joking.

The chances of the NV30 hitting shelves at the same time as the Radeon 9700 aren't much better than the chance of Bitboys getting a card on shelves at the same time as the 9700.

:rolleyes:

Some people are just delusional. This is bad news for all of us, no matter which card you are drooling over, the 9700 won't drop in price very soon and the NV30 won't even be available anytime soon. Everyone loses.

[pelly]

Evidently you somehow missed the following:
Don't think that I was at all serious about that comment....it was just a playful comment thrown out for s*#@'s and grins.

Did you manage to see that this time?

:confused:

Some people are just delusional.

Very true...can you believe that some people expect top of the line performance for under $300 at the product's release?
( Read between the lines here... )

My point is....With the ever-growing complexity of graphics cards, we have to expect ever-growing costs. The new generation of GPU's are close-to, if not more complex than the current CPU's. ( especially transistor-wise ) Factor in the insane amount of development time and resources necessary to bring the product to life and you have a large amount of ground to make up to make even a modest profit.

When I buy a GF4 Ti4200...I know that it will never overclock higher than an overclocked Ti4600......It will never be as fast.....However, that is the best card for my price-point and it does a hell of a job.

Don't complain because the next generation looks to be out of your price-point......Think of this scenario in the following manner...

If you want to have a luxurious car that is insanely fast and loaded with features....you are going to have to pay a premium...Granted, you can go out and buy a good car and tweak the hell out of it...but it will never match that M3 or Porsche...For those features you will always pay a big price...

The price may drop slightly...but it will remain expensive for months until the next generation of cards come out....You're paying a premium for the chance to have the latest and greatest. If you don't like the price....don't buy one...

The NV30 should be released within a few months of the 9700....If you want that small price drop...wait a few months....

I still believe that even paying $400 for a card that can have such a profound and dramatic effect upon my system's performance is a bargain! Would I like it to be cheaper? Of course....but then again, I am not "delusional".

What a novel idea eh? Everyone really does win.....


:D

[Mize]

Originally posted by pelly
Do I think this would have any negative effect upon the stockholders? No...I honestly don't.

Nvidia stockholders lost approximately a half a BILLION dollars of wealth TODAY. You can be certain this was partly because of the announced revenue shortfalls, but also because Nvidia disclosed that their fall part hasn't even been prototyped yet.

If Nvidia were to do such a thing as a marketing ploy you can bet that criminal charges would be filed as false disclosures - good or bad - are illegal.

Mize

[pelly]

Actually...I doubt that the "taping-out" situation had any large part in today's stock situation...It's not like Nvidia is just starting NV30.... :rolleyes:

I firmly believe the following are to blame for the stock price:

1) Increasing competition
2) Poor Xbox sales prior to price-cut
3) Poor Apple sales
4) Lack of a new product for quarter that just ended
5) Poor adoption of original nForce by market
6) Trouble with TSMC fab ( delays, etc..> )

The vast majority of these factors are out of Nvidia's hands...

The stock price should dramatically rise after the following:

1) nForce2 hits market with twice as many copanies backing than with the original nForce
2) Nvidia "officially" wins Xbox2 design competition ( rumored to have already happened )
3) NV3X hits market
4) Professional-based products introduced through Leadtek hit market
5) Switch to UMC for fab

These are all governed actions by Nvidia....they will surely increase stock-holder's confidence...


:D

Considering Nvidia's 100-day turnaround from taping to release....an "early" release would hardly be illegal....
:confused: