Hardware Rumor Mill is Slow

[rwolf]

Anyone notice how slow the hardware rumor mill is despite the fact that ATI and Nvidia are going to release their next generation soon.

[Kev1]

I don't think its going to be that soon. Probably March or April at earliest. Even then, affordable cards are still a few months away after that.

I expect first NV40, R420's to be $500 to $600 range :rolleyes:

[ClyssaN]

Originally posted by rwolf
Anyone notice how slow the hardware rumor mill is despite the fact that ATI and Nvidia are going to release their next generation soon.

yep you right, to slow :(

Do you remember this forum one year ago? :)

[Razor04]

One year ago the 9700 Pro was out doing phenomenal things...while the NV PR machine was going full speed ahead with "leaks" and all trying to get people to wait for the NV30 instead of going with the 9700 Pro. I think we all know how that played out and is still playing out....

[nobie]

ther's nothing new to talk about...maybe someone will leak some info at comdex next week.

[Hanners]

I guess now that R420 and NV40 are both close to/at tape-out, the rumours will start to fly again soon.

[Uttar]

Both NV40 and R420 already taped-out.
The little we know doesn't help much to tell us anything about real-world performance of the two parts.
How come the rumor mill's so slow?

1) Both NVIDIA and ATI's anti-rumor policies are beggining to have effect. Please note that both companies have VERY different approaches; what one thinks is impossible to do, the other tries and often does every day.
2) Independently from that, many people just aren't concerned by this "crap" anymore ( I'm focusing a bit more on software, MuFu is getting interested by Audio, other people are simply less hardcore now, and so on ).
3) The next-generation products are an awful lot less exciting. While the performance gains WILL be big, NVIDIA isn't hyping the NV40. At all. And ATI's R420 is nowhere as ambitious as the "amazing R400" was. Meh.

And I couldn't care less. Any other questions? :D
BTW, if you guys stopped to say Fudo is an idiot and that his sources suck, all of that being simply not true... maybe, oh maybe would he not have grown so conservative when it comes to releasing information and we'd already know a lot of R420 stuff?
Nowadays, he prefers not to say things too early on because it risks to change and make his info look bad and unreliable. Meh, once again.


Uttar

[The Baron]

MuFu's getting into audio? He running a site? Cause damn, I would love some consumer-level soundcards that don't sound like ass.

[Uttar]

Originally posted by The Baron
MuFu's getting into audio? He running a site? Cause damn, I would love some consumer-level soundcards that don't sound like ass.

Nope, he isn't. He still likes GPUs and stuff - but he's getting very interested in Audio, trying to learn more about it ( technically speaking ) and so on.


Uttar

[ClyssaN]

meh ... i want rumors ... :afro:

[suburbanguy]

pretty easy to see why. the NV40 and R420 are not massive leaps in anything, although they will be a nice leap in performance. just not like R300 / Radeon 9700 was.

the next major leap farward is still 18-24 months away, the NV50 and R500
:D

[StealthHawk]

Originally posted by Uttar
3) The next-generation products are an awful lot less exciting. While the performance gains WILL be big, NVIDIA isn't hyping the NV40. At all. And ATI's R420 is nowhere as ambitious as the "amazing R400" was. Meh.

Good, so NVIDIA learned to stop shooting their mouths off. Which is actually bad(for NVIDIA) because it means the following is possible:

a) NV40 really isn't going to be all that impressive.
b) NVIDIA is hesistant to make commitments which they might not be able to keep.
c) NVIDIA fears R420 will be a hardline competitor.

I too would like some rumors on specs and more of what we can expect from the new generation; as we draw closer to the release surely more becomes known. I am glad all the BS hype that happened last year isn't repeating itself again though. I think a lot of people set up others for some huge disappointments. I still remember the claims of NV30 having free AF and ATI releasing a monster R350 with high speed DDRII memory :rofl Among the other things that never happened. Instead we got a disappointing exceedingly late NV30 and unexciting refreshes from both companies*...twice.

*while NV35 wasn't really boring from an NVIDIA perspective, it was pretty boring since NV35 level performance was expected out of NV30. NV35 really wasn't much to get excited about considering R300 had been out for almost a year too.


The two things I'm most interested in about the next generation:
1) FSAA quality from NVIDIA.
2) AF quality from ATI.

[The Baron]

Stealth, I think it might be that they learned from the ubermistake that was the NV30 PR, so they are trying not to build any similar impossible expectations for NV40, regardless of how good of a card it is.

[MUYA]

Originally posted by The Baron
Stealth, I think it might be that they learned from the ubermistake that was the NV30 PR, so they are trying not to build any similar impossible expectations for NV40, regardless of how good of a card it is.

well i have heard a rumour monger/specialist say it will do UT2k3 gameplay at res of 1600 by 1200 with 4X AA and 8XAF at respectable levels..ie 100fps?...it being nv40 and no idea that persons source either. Guess we will have to wait and see.... :D


MUYA

[StealthHawk]

Originally posted by The Baron
Stealth, I think it might be that they learned from the ubermistake that was the NV30 PR, so they are trying not to build any similar impossible expectations for NV40, regardless of how good of a card it is.

NVIDIA PR seems to have no problems continuing to operate as they have for the past year. Maybe things will turn around for NV40 and maybe they won't.

Isn't this akin to the same expectations about drivers you had 2-3 months ago...? NVIDIA has shown no signs of taking a different path than the one they're on right now. And until I see some signs there's no reason for me to think they have either.

[The Baron]

Originally posted by StealthHawk
NVIDIA PR seems to have no problems continuing to operate as they have for the past year. Maybe things will turn around for NV40 and maybe they won't.

Isn't this akin to the same expectations about drivers you had 2-3 months ago...? NVIDIA has shown no signs of taking a different path than the one they're on right now. And until I see some signs there's no reason for me to think they have either.
Shush. My expectations about drivers were based on the assumption that NV40 would be out in November. The fact that they haven't released a build of 52.16 that did nothing except reenable the 3DMark cheats (although it's entirely possible that such a build simply hasn't been leaked) is surprising to me.

Yes, I'm surprised when they *don't* do the immoral thing.

But anyway, the NV30 hype started in May of 02. MAY. That was the first time anyone had heard of CineFX and all that jazz. Here we are, about three to four months away from NV40 launch, and the rumors are even slow. It's a good sign.

[StealthHawk]

Originally posted by The Baron
But anyway, the NV30 hype started in May of 02. MAY. That was the first time anyone had heard of CineFX and all that jazz. Here we are, about three to four months away from NV40 launch, and the rumors are even slow. It's a good sign.

Different time. NVIDIA probably knew R300 was coming out and that NV30 at best wouldn't be out till the end of the year. They had to do something to stall consumers from switching(the whole fickleness of the market). This time ATI won't have a card out that predates NVIDIA's answer for several months. There is no need for the ridiculous hype now.

I think NVIDIA did its job well. I'm pretty sure they kept a lot of potential switchers from buying R300s early.

[The Baron]

Originally posted by StealthHawk
Different time. NVIDIA probably knew R300 was coming out and that NV30 at best wouldn't be out till the end of the year. They had to do something to stall consumers from switching(the whole fickleness of the market). This time ATI won't have a card out that predates NVIDIA's answer for several months. There is no need for the ridiculous hype now.

I think NVIDIA did its job well. I'm pretty sure they kept a lot of potential switchers from buying R300s early.
I disagree. The NV30 delays could *not* be predicted. May is still too early for a PR blitz even if you know that you won't have a product until October at the earliest rather than July.

[Spotch]

NV 40 is all based on dev support they still aren’t following the DX guidelines.... Sure it will be much more potent in any scenario but it still will not be able to truly compete with the ATI DX9/10 performance. ATI is playing the consumer game now. It isn’t profitable to promote a card twice as fast as the current leading edge card, especially when that card is demanding $400+. Also the market has been stagnant for PCs for better than a year now. Folks are just beginning to upgrade their GF2s and 3s. Why push the state of the art further?

NV is going to continue their push towards programmable pipeline graphics. They are putting their money into the MS approach. (if you don’t follow our conventions and technology then you will be left out in the dust.) The cards they offer now can handle the current games easily.

Why else would they be still pushing the game dev shops to tweak the software to go against MS's DX specs? Because they are fighting it. It seems NVIDIA thinks they can pull off what 3DFX couldn’t: A proprietary 3D coding convention that is specifically tailored for their architecture.

Thats my 0.02

But mark my words Both companies will release a card by May that is at least twice as powerful that the top of the line card today.

[StealthHawk]

Originally posted by The Baron
I disagree. The NV30 delays could *not* be predicted. May is still too early for a PR blitz even if you know that you won't have a product until October at the earliest rather than July.

I would hardly say that the PR blitz began in May. We started getting some rumors in May, but not much official information. Nothing I would call a "blitz." I would call the whole "Are You Ready" campaign a blitz. As I recall, CineFX tidbits were first presented in July 2002 anyway as a way to show that NV30 shader architecture was better than R300 architecture...although I certainly could be wrong about that date. Post R300, details of NV30 started flowing...why? Because NVIDIA say it as the threat it was.

In May I'm pretty sure that we knew very little about NV30, except that NVIDIA still insisted it would be on time for a Fall launch and release, and that a 256bit bus was overkill.

The NV30 delays could easily be predicted. Not the extent of the delays, but it's crazy to think that NVIDIA didn't know if their own product had taped out yet and was ready for production, which it obviously was neither. For example, NVIDIA surely could say in May whether or not NV30 would be ready for launch in July/August, a few months later they surely could tell whether NV30 would be ready a few months after that, etc. There is no way that they couldn't know 1-3 months in advance whether or not NV30 would be ready. 3 months may be pushing things with an optmistic view, but I think 2 months advance notice is a good number.

Other than that, I agree with you, May is pretty ridiculous to start a PR campaign for a product that will be launched in October at the earliest. Unless it's a diversionary tactic. Whether such things are good or bad is a judgment call which NVIDIA conciously made. You feel that it was a bad decision, I feel that it was a bad decision. But it was made. Just like a whole slew of decisions were made at NVIDIA the past year which I'm sure we both agree were bad. But they happened anyway and they continue to happen.

[Viral]

I think the lack of rumors/hype has everything to do with the R360/NV38 just being launched.

ATI/nvidia want top dollar now.. they dont - want - people to hold out and buy their new card later on, they want the money now. A good way to kill a products sales, especially a top fot the line one where most purchasers are up on 'whats happening' is to announce/hype/spread rumors about a faster product coming soon.