qballshalls2002
01-13-04, 01:18 AM
Got this in the Phantoms forums:
http://forum.phantom.net/index.php?showtopic=2078(I think u gotta be a member in order to read this)
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Problems with the Phantom
Newbie (Warrior)
Group: Members
Posts: 2
Member No.: 3,981
Joined: 12-January 04
I believe the Phantom will be released, and is not fake now, however, I am fairly sure it will fail right out of the box, and worse, it is more of, in an Enron-esque manuever, an attempt to bilk venture capital from an unsuspecting game industry. The latter is more inferred than anything, but the former, that it will fail, is my argument here.
For the basis of this argument, the launch price will be $400. Many news sources such as the Register have cited this price, and that's what I'm using.
Several points to support this theory:
1. It is already following in the footsteps of many failed systems.
Let's do a quick history lesson.
- The Nuon. This "system" was a proprietary chipset built into certain DVD player models. This system was quickly squashed when it's game library (ending at 7, 3 of which were not officially "released"). Due to old, antiquted technology, poor exclusives (There must be a good reason why one Phantom exclusive 'Spanking Runners" looks like a high-res Merlin Racing), and no advertising at all.
The Phantom follows this in that much of its game 'library' is outdated (Might & Magic, while a brilliant series, won't bring home the sales as a killer app like Halo or GTAIII), and the 'announced' exclusives, 4 of which sound like racing titles, won't bring home the bacon. The Phantom most closely mirrors the Nuon at this point in time.
- The Neo Geo. While a cult favorite, and a system with exclusives like no others, the price even today, keeps away the mainstream with buying power. Even with truly arcade quality games, the system quickly rolled away from the norm, as only those with a large bank account could afford the $700 system, and $200 games.
The Phantom will retail for $400, no? Sure, the games aren't going to be $200 each, but then again, that didn't matter for..
- The 3D0. When I first heard about the Phantom, I thought "Ok, this sounds like a Trip Hawkins adventure.". While a 32bit CD system, and with reasonably priced games, the $700 price tag squashed it fairly quickly, and the lack of good exclusive titles didn't help it that much either. The focus on educational titles also clouded the game library as well, giving high title counts, half of which no key demographic member would either bother buying.
The Phantom again hits the price issue, as well as the exclusives area. More importantly, the contract with Riverdeep boosted the Phantom's game total, but features titles that no one who would buy a Phantom, would actually play on their Phantom.
Overall, the main points are that the price, lack of exclusive titles, and a huge edutainment library will hurt the Phantom greatly.
2. No media input.
No CD/DVD drive sounds like a great idea, until you tell your customers that after the Phantom service dies out, they can't get a new game or patch onto their machines. In a perfect world, the Phantom game download system would be around for years after the Phantom2 was released. However, if the system fails, or bandwidth costs overtake Infinium, every customer is left with a box that can take in no new games, and once a game is deleted, it is gone - period.
Also, since the Phantom will be encrypted, users may be hard pressed (also not having a media input) to crack the system to at least let them use something on their $500 blue light box.
3. Huge library of games that everyone has already played/Lack of exclusives.
The PlayStation2 is a success, not because it can play all old PS1 games (well, most PS1 games)(This ability does help the system), but because it has exclusive titles which sell. The Phantom has a huge library of old PC games, but it is lacking new exclusive titles that will sell. What supercharged the XBox's release? Halo. No denying that - it took the PC style FPS that Goldeneye on the N64 made popular to consoles, and improved upon it. The killer app - not even a sequel or anything - came and sold systems. The impending release of its sequel keeps XBox owners with their system.
And the game Merlin Racing is *not* an exclusive. It was released on the Nuon.
4. Broadband as the primary, and only source for games.
As touched on before, this should not be the users only route for getting their games. Release the system, then, just as a test, pull the plug on the broadband connection towards the Phantoms for one hour. When the calls come in, and don't stop, you may have wanted to reconsider that broadband only move. Also keep in mind that bandwidth costs crushed the @home network, and that network was much, much bigger! If your network goes down, you leave all your users with a useless system. Also, how long is it going to take to get one game? Will a user wait an hour? Two hours, to get their game? Can you provide speeds to get a 700 meg game in 10 minutes? To several thousand users at once?
5. Pricepoint.
$400? Let's do a comparison.
Playstation: $300
Playstation2: $300
XBox: $300
GameCube: $200
Nintendo 64: $250
*Saturn $300
*Neo Geo: $700
*3D0: $700
Atari 2600: $200
*Saturn $300
*Sega CD: $300
*32X: $150
Genesis: $200
SNES: $200
*Jaguar: $300
*Dreamcast: $200
No system that has started above $300 has EVER succeeded in the game market. If you see a star, the system failed. Also keep in mind the Sega CD and 32X needed a (at the time, $100-$150) Genesis to work. (And with this, the Dreamcast's future was already judged by the 32x, Sega CD, and Saturn flops) Although all of those system had other factors towards its demise, they all can be cited a reason towards the pricepoint. It is also arguable that the reason the Gamecube is still afloat is its first party titles and very low price. You *can* be the first system to make that hurdle, but you have to give a GREAT reason to make a user buy your system.
6. Upgrading system equipment.
If the bulk of your game library is going to be adapted for the Phantom, what about when game requirements exceed what the Phantom can do? You can say all day that your system will meet game requirements for years to come, but it will happen. How about if PC designers favor the ATI chipset entirely, making the nVidia chipset in your machine outdated ahead of schedule? The Playstation2 is already taking heat around the fact that it can't handle 60fps where the Cube and XBox can.
Sure, you can have users send in systems for upgrades, but will they take those costs, not to mention sending the system to and from?
7. Crowded Market.
Is there room for the Phantom? No. The video game market has never been able to sustain 4 systems. "But it's not a game console, it's a PC console." Whatever. Your market is clear - systems that hook up to a TV. You're still fighting for the console dollar, and even worse, you're also fighting for the PC dollar as well.
8. Subscrption-based System.
Althought $10 is a minor factor in the discussion, there are two things to consider concerning this point. First, the reason why many MMORPGs don't have the widespread appeal as other games, is the subscription fee. This, however, is minor, as it is one game versus a system's library. My second point, which is more important, is will $10 per user be able to cover the bandwidth and maintenance costs for all time? What if the price has to be adjusted to keep the network up? Do the intended buyers of this system know that? Do they know that the price may go up and, to keep their system from becoming useless, they may need to pay more?
In closing, the Phantom will be a hard sell, and it needs to be able to win people over like myself. These 8 things do NOT help it.
Hard Hitting facts indeed.I would take the Apex pc console anyday over this Phantom crap.
http://forum.phantom.net/index.php?showtopic=2078(I think u gotta be a member in order to read this)
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Problems with the Phantom
Newbie (Warrior)
Group: Members
Posts: 2
Member No.: 3,981
Joined: 12-January 04
I believe the Phantom will be released, and is not fake now, however, I am fairly sure it will fail right out of the box, and worse, it is more of, in an Enron-esque manuever, an attempt to bilk venture capital from an unsuspecting game industry. The latter is more inferred than anything, but the former, that it will fail, is my argument here.
For the basis of this argument, the launch price will be $400. Many news sources such as the Register have cited this price, and that's what I'm using.
Several points to support this theory:
1. It is already following in the footsteps of many failed systems.
Let's do a quick history lesson.
- The Nuon. This "system" was a proprietary chipset built into certain DVD player models. This system was quickly squashed when it's game library (ending at 7, 3 of which were not officially "released"). Due to old, antiquted technology, poor exclusives (There must be a good reason why one Phantom exclusive 'Spanking Runners" looks like a high-res Merlin Racing), and no advertising at all.
The Phantom follows this in that much of its game 'library' is outdated (Might & Magic, while a brilliant series, won't bring home the sales as a killer app like Halo or GTAIII), and the 'announced' exclusives, 4 of which sound like racing titles, won't bring home the bacon. The Phantom most closely mirrors the Nuon at this point in time.
- The Neo Geo. While a cult favorite, and a system with exclusives like no others, the price even today, keeps away the mainstream with buying power. Even with truly arcade quality games, the system quickly rolled away from the norm, as only those with a large bank account could afford the $700 system, and $200 games.
The Phantom will retail for $400, no? Sure, the games aren't going to be $200 each, but then again, that didn't matter for..
- The 3D0. When I first heard about the Phantom, I thought "Ok, this sounds like a Trip Hawkins adventure.". While a 32bit CD system, and with reasonably priced games, the $700 price tag squashed it fairly quickly, and the lack of good exclusive titles didn't help it that much either. The focus on educational titles also clouded the game library as well, giving high title counts, half of which no key demographic member would either bother buying.
The Phantom again hits the price issue, as well as the exclusives area. More importantly, the contract with Riverdeep boosted the Phantom's game total, but features titles that no one who would buy a Phantom, would actually play on their Phantom.
Overall, the main points are that the price, lack of exclusive titles, and a huge edutainment library will hurt the Phantom greatly.
2. No media input.
No CD/DVD drive sounds like a great idea, until you tell your customers that after the Phantom service dies out, they can't get a new game or patch onto their machines. In a perfect world, the Phantom game download system would be around for years after the Phantom2 was released. However, if the system fails, or bandwidth costs overtake Infinium, every customer is left with a box that can take in no new games, and once a game is deleted, it is gone - period.
Also, since the Phantom will be encrypted, users may be hard pressed (also not having a media input) to crack the system to at least let them use something on their $500 blue light box.
3. Huge library of games that everyone has already played/Lack of exclusives.
The PlayStation2 is a success, not because it can play all old PS1 games (well, most PS1 games)(This ability does help the system), but because it has exclusive titles which sell. The Phantom has a huge library of old PC games, but it is lacking new exclusive titles that will sell. What supercharged the XBox's release? Halo. No denying that - it took the PC style FPS that Goldeneye on the N64 made popular to consoles, and improved upon it. The killer app - not even a sequel or anything - came and sold systems. The impending release of its sequel keeps XBox owners with their system.
And the game Merlin Racing is *not* an exclusive. It was released on the Nuon.
4. Broadband as the primary, and only source for games.
As touched on before, this should not be the users only route for getting their games. Release the system, then, just as a test, pull the plug on the broadband connection towards the Phantoms for one hour. When the calls come in, and don't stop, you may have wanted to reconsider that broadband only move. Also keep in mind that bandwidth costs crushed the @home network, and that network was much, much bigger! If your network goes down, you leave all your users with a useless system. Also, how long is it going to take to get one game? Will a user wait an hour? Two hours, to get their game? Can you provide speeds to get a 700 meg game in 10 minutes? To several thousand users at once?
5. Pricepoint.
$400? Let's do a comparison.
Playstation: $300
Playstation2: $300
XBox: $300
GameCube: $200
Nintendo 64: $250
*Saturn $300
*Neo Geo: $700
*3D0: $700
Atari 2600: $200
*Saturn $300
*Sega CD: $300
*32X: $150
Genesis: $200
SNES: $200
*Jaguar: $300
*Dreamcast: $200
No system that has started above $300 has EVER succeeded in the game market. If you see a star, the system failed. Also keep in mind the Sega CD and 32X needed a (at the time, $100-$150) Genesis to work. (And with this, the Dreamcast's future was already judged by the 32x, Sega CD, and Saturn flops) Although all of those system had other factors towards its demise, they all can be cited a reason towards the pricepoint. It is also arguable that the reason the Gamecube is still afloat is its first party titles and very low price. You *can* be the first system to make that hurdle, but you have to give a GREAT reason to make a user buy your system.
6. Upgrading system equipment.
If the bulk of your game library is going to be adapted for the Phantom, what about when game requirements exceed what the Phantom can do? You can say all day that your system will meet game requirements for years to come, but it will happen. How about if PC designers favor the ATI chipset entirely, making the nVidia chipset in your machine outdated ahead of schedule? The Playstation2 is already taking heat around the fact that it can't handle 60fps where the Cube and XBox can.
Sure, you can have users send in systems for upgrades, but will they take those costs, not to mention sending the system to and from?
7. Crowded Market.
Is there room for the Phantom? No. The video game market has never been able to sustain 4 systems. "But it's not a game console, it's a PC console." Whatever. Your market is clear - systems that hook up to a TV. You're still fighting for the console dollar, and even worse, you're also fighting for the PC dollar as well.
8. Subscrption-based System.
Althought $10 is a minor factor in the discussion, there are two things to consider concerning this point. First, the reason why many MMORPGs don't have the widespread appeal as other games, is the subscription fee. This, however, is minor, as it is one game versus a system's library. My second point, which is more important, is will $10 per user be able to cover the bandwidth and maintenance costs for all time? What if the price has to be adjusted to keep the network up? Do the intended buyers of this system know that? Do they know that the price may go up and, to keep their system from becoming useless, they may need to pay more?
In closing, the Phantom will be a hard sell, and it needs to be able to win people over like myself. These 8 things do NOT help it.
Hard Hitting facts indeed.I would take the Apex pc console anyday over this Phantom crap.