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View Full Version : PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe


Big Ev
03-20-06, 01:06 PM
PREFACE: This is my opinion and not fact. I welcome others opinions for, against, or totally radical from either category. I look forward to your responses and own opinion. I started this post in another forum, but it turned in to a total **** show. This forum, in my opinion, the user base is more educated and should produce some healthy discussion.

So the PS3 has all been delayed until November of 2006 for world wide release:http://www.gamespot.com/news/6145972.html

To my point. The PS3, being released this late, has already been defeated here in North America and Europe. Microsoft did stumble out of the blocks at launch but has installed small user base that is going to keep growing while the PS3 is stlll waiting to be released. By the time the PS3 launches, Microsoft will command a large share of the market and the share that they don't command they will win over with a price cut. See this is where Microsoft is genius. The problem with the first Xbox is they locked themselves in long term contracts on fixed prices. So as the price of the Nvidia GPU went down to the rest of the market, Microsoft was still paying premium prices for an mid-level GPU. The same goes for the processor that Intel provided and the DVD drives from various manufacters. This killed them since they were all ready losing a significant amount of money on each unit sold and when the price cut came, the bill of materials was still the same. Now with the Xbox 360, Microsoft wised up and followed the route that Nintendo had taken with the GameCube. Contracts with adjustable declining rates. Microsoft will still spend a slight premium on their parts, since the ATI GPU they are using is custom to the Xbox 360, but it won't be exoberant. Hence the X-mas time price cut will be KEY since Microsoft won't take a major hit in the money lost in per unit sold, and when mommy and daddy go to buy a new game system for Johnny 8-year old and see the Xbox 360 for $299 with all the bells and whistles and then see the PS3 for $499-$599, well the choice is clear. Xbox 360 most likely have the same games, Johnny will be happy, and the parents saved $200-$300.

Now the one thing that the PS3 does have going for it is Blu-ray. Blu-ray is going to be expensive, but Sony is going to provide a gaming machine AND a quality Blu-ray player at the bargin price of $500 (predicted price, though. Definitely not set in stone). Taking into consideration that Blu-ray players now are going to be costing $1000+ and they won't drop much more by November 2006 since those hardware companies want to profit off their product are not looking to create and installed user base by taking a loss on their hardware and making up for it on software sales. If Blu-ray movies are in full force and in demand come November 2006, the PS3 could do very well for itself, but it is going to take longer than 8 months to establish Blu-ray as viable movie medium. People are very invested in to their DVD home theatres and upgrading to a 1080p TV and Blu-ray player may deter them.

My second point, and not so business related, is that the Xbox 360 is going to match and/or blow the doors off the first generation PS3 titles. Me personally as game developer, going over in detail the Xbox 360 hardware, there is wealth of power there that we all ready have a grasp on. I do not develop on the Xbox 360, but from an engineering stand point, it is mind boggling. Bottle necks are virutally gone, the potential for complex physics is abound, and the 64-bit RISC processors are damn efficent. I have recently seen the Unreal 3 engine first hand early this week and it was jaw dropping. To put things in perspective, examining a gun in this pre-production game, the polygon count came in at a shade over 6,000 polygons. The detail was incredible and goregous. The average player model in the Source Engine (Half-Life/Counter-Strike) is only 6,000 polygons. It is truly impressive and even this level of graphical power is still in it infantile stages on the Xbox 360. Come November, when games finally release to the Xbox 360 that are polished and built for the system (not hasty ports like Quake 4, or even Call of Duty 2), it is going to push systems out the door in a hurry. A system that can match the PS3 and probably surpass it at first, and $300 less, the choice is clear. Now I understand some are you are thinking "graphics don't make games, gameplay does." And you know what, you're right, because you are educated gamers. However development usually focuses on joe-blow consumer who is easily drawn in by shiny objects and really could give a **** once the game is paid for by the consumer. A sad, a very true reality. (Side Note: Even though I am young and just starting out I am making it a mission statement that I will not settle for an utter crap game. I will leave a project if I feel what we are going to release is going to be ****. I still keep true to my gaming roots). Now the PS3 is incredibly powerful, but technology is very alien to me, and even to some very experienced and talented developers I know personally in the industry. The PS3 is going to provide a wealth of power, but until we can really wrap our heads around it, it is going to remain largely untapped and not blow the Xbox 360 out of the water until much later aka Xmas 2007.

So in conclusion, I envision the PS3 having amazing success in Japan. Sony has a strong fan base there and the Japanese gamers are clearly not digging the Xbox 360. However here in North America and Europe, the average gamer is gobbling up the Xbox 360 as fast as possible (which isn't too fast, since Microsoft has been slow keeping up with demand) and Microsoft is building their base while their developers and working on and in polishing some very impressive and visually stunning games. I'm sorry PS3, but I think you lost this war before it even started.

Last thoughts on the Revolution
Now I am really loving Nintendo's Revolution, believe it or not. Yes, at first I was very turned off by the "wand-like" controller, but I really think Nintendo going to have great success across the globe. See, they are not looking to compete with the Xbox 360 or the PS3, not at all. Nintendo view's the Revolution as a separate product all together, and will market it that way. I have not seen a Revolution, or even its specs, but its funky controller lets the mind run wild with new game innovations, which this industry really needs, and the back library that Nintendo is going to provide is brillant. Old school retro gamers and the casual gamer will gobble this unit up and at $99-$149, its quite affordable.

EDIT for grammar

S.I.N
03-20-06, 01:31 PM
PS3 failing anywhere is like saying M$ will fail with it's next OS and wont make billions in the long run because it was delayed. Wishfull thinking but it wont happen. I am not even a harcore console gamer anymore and I can tell PS3 will eat the competition alive even if it cost 500 dollar menu sandwiches.

PeterJensen
03-20-06, 03:04 PM
You can rest a sure that Vista will not fail. After i have been using the latest beta in a test center at work i can tell you that MS Vista will be a great leap over Windows XP.

|MaguS|
03-20-06, 03:11 PM
You can rest a sure that Vista will not fail. After i have been using the latest beta in a test center at work i can tell you that MS Vista will be a great leap over Windows XP.

We know it wont fail... he was using it as example by comparing Sony in the Console world to MS in the OS world...

evilchris
03-20-06, 03:14 PM
We know it wont fail... he was using it as example by comparing Sony in the Console world to MS in the OS world...
When the Genesis was on top I'm sure people thought Sega would never fail. When the NES was dominating I'm sure no one thought Nintendo could ever be outsold in the console world. Never say never.

|MaguS|
03-20-06, 03:16 PM
Yes but they made moves that hurt their relationship with developers... developers so far are not leaving Sony's camp.

evilchris
03-20-06, 03:19 PM
Microsoft could end this war in my opinion. Give the console away for free. Just like HP printers. Sony doesn't have the reserves to do that and survive. Microsoft has $50,000,000,000 cash in the bank. That would be a hell of a move, a TRUE loss leader!

|MaguS|
03-20-06, 03:53 PM
I don't think MS's Investors would ever approve of that...

Rakeesh
03-20-06, 03:58 PM
Well, not for free, but they could drop the price to something rediculously low, like $100 or something, that way you don't get people grabbing the console just because they can.

That would be a double edged sword though. History has shown that the price of a product has an impact on its perceived quality. Namely, if it is low priced, then it is viewed as an economy product for the budged minded consumer, whereas the more expensive consoles would be viewed as quality products meant for "serious gamers," etc.

Think kinda like that trump tower in new york where he couldn't sell any of the condos, so he raised the price and they sold out fast.

But it would still really kill sony's sales if they did this. Especially for those who are interested entirely in the games and not necessarily the hardware. E.g. somebody who will buy whatever system they can get ahold of in order to play game X, whether that system is made by sony or microsoft.

msxyz
03-20-06, 04:22 PM
First, M$ should increase the production so that the Xbox could be widely available at last.

Decreasing the cost of the console might actually hurt its image at this early point. Many people consider cheap=crap

Microsoft should invest more into developers. Console wars are won on software. Exclusive titles are those who shift the market. As of now the list of exclusive is quite impressive but Microsoft should try harder. Right now Microsoft secured some potential hits (Mistwalker RPGs, N3, Too human, GoW) but to win the casual mainstream gamers it should try to win some big established franchise.

It would be a better way to invest money (even in the eyes of investors) than taking a bigger loss on the hardware sales.

H3avyM3tal
03-20-06, 04:23 PM
You know what I find really funny? Most ppl here say that games are what will make this war what it is, but nowhere, nowhere, they are mentioned by the posts in here (not THIS thread only).

It's all about what the console will cost, what can M$ do with all their money, Sony is screwed cuz the ps3 will cost lots, and other various comments.
My point being is, if ppl think that this war will be won based on console price, ppl are very mistaken.

Sony already have the largest fan base of the three, she knows it, MS knows it, and as was mentioned by nintendo (I really don't know what to say about them, as the company and the fans thinks in opposite ways), what will win here are games.

While I doubt either MS nor Sony will 'lose' anything, I am in more thinking that this will just continue as it is. Sony being the most successful out of the three already have enough support, enough killer apps, and more than enough fans who would like to see the ps3.

And here is the the stunner: This "war" will be won by games. So making assumptions based on console price tag and hardware capabilities is totslly invalid.

And that is my honest oppinion.

Toss3
03-20-06, 04:38 PM
I'm sorry I had to post this, but these Xbox360 vs. Ps3 threads are getting on my nerves; they serve no point/ they only end up as flame wars/ gives us no facts/state only personal opinions! And speaking as a developer you really show your talents by saying a console you haven't even developed for is as good as or slower than the Xbox360, "My second point, and not so business related, is that the Xbox 360 is going to match and/or blow the doors off the first generation PS3 titles."("A system that can match the PS3 and probably surpass it at first..").
At least I'm glad there are other developers out there that really want to give us consumers the best by learning to develop games on consoles and hardware they don't know yet. I'd also like to add that the Ps3 has about as many launch titles as there are games thus far for the xbox360.
This is a prediction done by professional analysts: http://www.maxps3.com/2006/03/16/analysts-predict-delays-have-little-long-term-impact/

So please don't start threads like this anymore, especially if you haven't done your research! You didn't give us any new information; you only took the side of the xbox360 fans. As far as I'm concerned I don't believe taking sides as a developer is a good thing; you should have an open mind and test both systems before posting your opinion.

Btw. I'm no Ps3 fan, in fact I don't like either company, but I do like playing games and that's why I plan on owning both consoles(have an xbox360 already). So don't get me wrong here, I like the xbox360, but noone can see into the future and that's why one should wait until both consoles are released before posting that one of the consoles is better than the other.

LiquidX
03-20-06, 04:39 PM
The 360 is still comparable to the PS3 IMO especially with the news today that MS has made Live more open to devs, so MMO's will have a chance on the system. But what MS needs to do though is make the HDD standard so devs are not only focused on making it a priority for PS3 games while over looking it for the 360. This is so we dont end up with gimped games. They also needs to push the Marketplace more and make more of it like the option to buy music because its getting pretty stale. Also a new ad campaign other than that lame "Jump-In" wouldnt do any harm.

Mr. Hunt
03-20-06, 05:50 PM
If the current "production" (I use the word loosely, because they don't seem to be produced) of the 360 continues at its slow pace right now, and Sony CAN come through with the 6 million units by the end of this year worldwide, Sony has nothing to fear.

Mr_LoL
03-21-06, 03:04 AM
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=15498
Good article for anyone who wants to read.

Nv40
03-21-06, 04:18 AM
Since everyone is making predictions ,here is mine.

the Xbox360 sales will cut in half once the PS3 is launched.. this is without AAA games. SOny told they will have 2millions of ps3's at launch ,and 1 million per month after launch. thats 4x times higher than the 250k Microsoft were promising to be doing per month but that could not deliver. Being Sony a hardware centric company and 3xtimes more fabs than microsoft helps. by summer of next year in less than a year SOny should be edging the Xbox360 in sales.

Bluray will win the format war ,thanks to the smart deicision of Sony to include one as a bonus in EVERY ps3. having so many millions of high definition capable units on the streets ,significantly bigger hardware support automatically means better software support.This is automatic .. Demand vs supply. Software support comes after the hardware is supported with sales and not earlier.

Ps3 will dominate this round ,it has a few but very significant more features for a reasonable price promised by SOny.What the PS3 have that the Xbox360 doesnt ?

out of the box..... :
Bigger brand name ,yes name matters.. look what happened last generation being really behind in features and in price .
More developer support + better games , world first true High definition console in the market-> + BLURAY for movies/games , Sony marketing department will have a field-day with Microsoft about this (an rightly justified) + 60GB Hard disk + more physics power in CELL .

Any effort of Microsoft to "FIX" their mistakes in the xbox360 by bundling future consoles with Hardisks ,and a HD-DVD players are wasted ,since once you have your base without those features ,developers will not be spliting the community a leave behind an early community 5-10 millions. once you have an option for a lower package ,the non hardcore community will pick the cheapier one.

The ps3 will have also support for keyboard and mouse in app and games ,rumours are that memory ram can be upgraded too ,will have a free but very strong linux OS ,perhaps with free aplications to use the console as media center with usefull aplication for adults , will help SOny to market the PS3 as a lot more than a gaming console . is simply the more featured and futureproof console ..period. Microsoft only chance is to manage to compete in a very agressive price war.


ANy advantage in many of the xbox360 games over the PS3 will be void ,once they are released in the PC (or the PS3 )and with better graphics.. -> Oblivion for example.

ANother problem with the xbox360 is Microsoft. yes.. the same company that advertise the xbox360 as the next generation gaming platform ,advertise Windows Vista as a next generation gaming platform. :) Funny enough will all Technology disadvantages the XBox360 have over the PS3 ,its biggest competition is the PC .. because in the end is all about games. just look at the polls many more people getting Oblivion pc the Xbox360 version.

Sony doesnt need to sell their console to more costumers ,they only need to convince the majority of its already ~100 millions Ps2 community to upgrade to the PS3. Microsoft in the other hand need to convince all their Xbox1 customers to upgrade ,plus make a lot more new customers on top . and to make things more dificult for Microsoft, there is also another console called Revolution that will steal away any price advantage in the xbox360.on top tha the Ps2 is still outselling the xbox360 in sales. so the price war will not work for microsoft if they continue to compete in the high end market, casual gamers ,that is kids ,will get better from DAd and mom a revolution , Ps2 or an Xbox1 that will be far cheapier instead of xbox360 or a Ps3.

in summary i think the PS3 will do far better in sales that last generation . and this is because the Ps3 will be targeting a wider community. not only gamers but also non gamers (movie fans) and perhaps will not be surprised in DELL sells premium PS3 packages with linux ,keyboard and lots of free aplications as PC. Already IBM announced that will be selling Cell servers for super computer stuff ,and toshiba is doing the same.. yes the same company that is at "war" in the media format.. will be advertising indirectly the competition because cell is also inside the Ps3 plus something else. :) Imho i really believe Sony will make the hell of a lot money this generation ,they will be shooting two or three birds at the same time . If they manage win the format war (and they will) .it will be a bonus. a BIG one.. more easier it will be for SOny to get back their R&S investment in the PS3.

if i were Microsoft ,from a business point of view ,the last thing i will do is to compete againts the PS3 with a hardware that is not at the same marketing level .while generally people are non teachy ,they always are curious and once they are informed about the diferences between the consoles if they have the money they will get the more future looking one. So it will be better busines for MS to forget about SOny ,drop any future optional upgrades ike the optional Hardisk and the optional HD-DVD.. is too late for that. the less comparisons people make between the highend consoles better for them. ANd increase the production rate and price the console at $249 bundle with a couple of top games. or a $199 cheap package without games. if that means lowering the specs of the console in future revisions to make profits so be it. To more efectively compete againts Nintendo . because otherwise they could end defeated even by nintendo revolution . which is what i think will end happening if they continue with their obsession to "kill" the bigger player first ,instead of doing solids steps first and placing themselves in a profitable position. THis was what happend to the xbox1. it failed to make any profits. and ended about the same with nintendo in console sales..but contrary to Nintendo ,losing money .

|MaguS|
03-21-06, 05:02 AM
rumours are that memory ram can be upgraded too

This will NEVER happen, EVER. Im tired of these stupid rumors people make up. You made an example of why this wouldn't work in your own predictions. If there is the possibility for upgrade developers would be hurt. This especially wont happen since the memory the PS3 is using is unique and not available commercially.

Alot of your prediction sounds way to bias towards the PS3, I mean X360 sales by half? I dout that, MS has a nice hold over the american console market due to their aim for the MTV/College Crowd.

oldsk00l
03-21-06, 07:03 AM
I don't think MS's Investors would ever approve of that...

I think they would, because MS has been under fire for not spending enough capital over the last few years.

Besides, I think they would make bank on their investment if they did that. The games sold would just explode beyond proportion and it may balance out. And as pointed out, MS could do that and easily survive. Sony is financially hurting these days and couldn't conceive of doing such a thing.

oldsk00l
03-21-06, 07:08 AM
Since everyone is making predictions ,here is mine.

the Xbox360 sales will cut in half once the PS3 is launched.. this is without AAA games. SOny told they will have 2millions of ps3's at launch ,and 1 million per month after launch. thats 4x times higher than the 250k Microsoft were promising to be doing per month but that could not deliver. Being Sony a hardware centric company and 3xtimes more fabs than microsoft helps. by summer of next year in less than a year SOny should be edging the Xbox360 in sales.

Bluray will win the format war ,thanks to the smart deicision of Sony to include one as a bonus in EVERY ps3. having so many millions of high definition capable units on the streets ,significantly bigger hardware support automatically means better software support.This is automatic .. Demand vs supply. Software support comes after the hardware is supported with sales and not earlier.

Ps3 will dominate this round ,it has a few but very significant more features for a reasonable price promised by SOny.What the PS3 have that the Xbox360 doesnt ?

out of the box..... :
Bigger brand name ,yes name matters.. look what happened last generation being really behind in features and in price .
More developer support + better games , world first true High definition console in the market-> + BLURAY for movies/games , Sony marketing department will have a field-day with Microsoft about this (an rightly justified) + 60GB Hard disk + more physics power in CELL .

Any effort of Microsoft to "FIX" their mistakes in the xbox360 by bundling future consoles with Hardisks ,and a HD-DVD players are wasted ,since once you have your base without those features ,developers will not be spliting the community a leave behind an early community 5-10 millions. once you have an option for a lower package ,the non hardcore community will pick the cheapier one.

The ps3 will have also support for keyboard and mouse in app and games ,rumours are that memory ram can be upgraded too ,will have a free but very strong linux OS ,perhaps with free aplications to use the console as media center with usefull aplication for adults , will help SOny to market the PS3 as a lot more than a gaming console . is simply the more featured and futureproof console ..period. Microsoft only chance is to manage to compete in a very agressive price war.


ANy advantage in many of the xbox360 games over the PS3 will be void ,once they are released in the PC (or the PS3 )and with better graphics.. -> Oblivion for example.

ANother problem with the xbox360 is Microsoft. yes.. the same company that advertise the xbox360 as the next generation gaming platform ,advertise Windows Vista as a next generation gaming platform. :) Funny enough will all Technology disadvantages the XBox360 have over the PS3 ,its biggest competition is the PC .. because in the end is all about games. just look at the polls many more people getting Oblivion pc the Xbox360 version.

Sony doesnt need to sell their console to more costumers ,they only need to convince the majority of its already ~100 millions Ps2 community to upgrade to the PS3. Microsoft in the other hand need to convince all their Xbox1 customers to upgrade ,plus make a lot more new customers on top . and to make things more dificult for Microsoft, there is also another console called Revolution that will steal away any price advantage in the xbox360.on top tha the Ps2 is still outselling the xbox360 in sales. so the price war will not work for microsoft if they continue to compete in the high end market, casual gamers ,that is kids ,will get better from DAd and mom a revolution , Ps2 or an Xbox1 that will be far cheapier instead of xbox360 or a Ps3.

in summary i think the PS3 will do far better in sales that last generation . and this is because the Ps3 will be targeting a wider community. not only gamers but also non gamers (movie fans) and perhaps will not be surprised in DELL sells premium PS3 packages with linux ,keyboard and lots of free aplications as PC. Already IBM announced that will be selling Cell servers for super computer stuff ,and toshiba is doing the same.. yes the same company that is at "war" in the media format.. will be advertising indirectly the competition because cell is also inside the Ps3 plus something else. :) Imho i really believe Sony will make the hell of a lot money this generation ,they will be shooting two or three birds at the same time . If they manage win the format war (and they will) .it will be a bonus. a BIG one.. more easier it will be for SOny to get back their R&S investment in the PS3.

if i were Microsoft ,from a business point of view ,the last thing i will do is to compete againts the PS3 with a hardware that is not at the same marketing level .while generally people are non teachy ,they always are curious and once they are informed about the diferences between the consoles if they have the money they will get the more future looking one. So it will be better busines for MS to forget about SOny ,drop any future optional upgrades ike the optional Hardisk and the optional HD-DVD.. is too late for that. the less comparisons people make between the highend consoles better for them. ANd increase the production rate and price the console at $249 bundle with a couple of top games. or a $199 cheap package without games. if that means lowering the specs of the console in future revisions to make profits so be it. To more efectively compete againts Nintendo . because otherwise they could end defeated even by nintendo revolution . which is what i think will end happening if they continue with their obsession to "kill" the bigger player first ,instead of doing solids steps first and placing themselves in a profitable position. THis was what happend to the xbox1. it failed to make any profits. and ended about the same with nintendo in console sales..but contrary to Nintendo ,losing money .

Hello there resident Sony shill.

I seriously wonder if you're paid, BUT then you go and make hardware presumptions that clearly label you as uninformed and irrational.

ANYHOW, you're talking about bluray, and remember the fire that Nintendo took for not playing DVD's on the gamecube? I don't think very many people are going to care. I just think you want to see the PS3 "win" because you "just like it" compared to xbox, maybe it's the nVidia chip? Maybe Sony? I dunno, but you're hardly rational about it.

Bad_Boy
03-21-06, 07:18 AM
Hello there resident Sony shill.

I seriously wonder if you're paid, BUT then you go and make hardware presumptions that clearly label you as uninformed and irrational.

ANYHOW, you're talking about bluray, and remember the fire that Nintendo took for not playing DVD's on the gamecube? I don't think very many people are going to care. I just think you want to see the PS3 "win" because you "just like it" compared to xbox, maybe it's the nVidia chip? Maybe Sony? I dunno, but you're hardly rational about it.
Most gamecube buyers were probably kids who didnt not notice the difference between DVD's and Gamecube's DISK's besides the fact that one was smaller than the other.

I'd say hes being as rational as anyone else in this thread, its all speculation right now. why are you so riled up over this oldsk00l?

MUYA
03-21-06, 08:11 AM
I am getting tired over the amount of PS3 vs xbox360 threads started in here and then turning into a flame fest. There have been enough opinions thrown about it, it's marketing, dev relations, tech etc. NO MORE PLEASE