NVIDIA becomes a CPU+GPU powerhouse

[Heinz68]

Rumor off the year and the INQUIRER missed it completely :)

Posted at Beyond3D Forum (http://www.beyond3d.com/forum/showthread.php?t=32313) by Jakob Junior :) 28-Jul-2006, 21:47
Prediction: In a year, NVIDIA buys the combined AMD/ATI

NVIDIA is nearly the same size as AMD already. NVIDIA has a market cap of 8.0B. AMD is 9.2B. However, with the cpu price cuts, merger expenses, increasing debt load, and the performance crown now back at Intel, AMD will post severe profit declines over the next year. This will lead to a further erosion of the stock. NVIDIA on the other hand will post record profits while playing both sides. NVIDIA goes up 50% from here and AMD goes down 20%, placing NVIDIA around 12B and AMD at 7.4B. AMD is now within reach for a cash+stock aquisition by NVIDIA.

NVIDIA becomes a CPU+GPU powerhouse and Jensen Huang, armed with K9 and G90, leads the company into a pitched battle against Intel. Grab your popcorn folks.
:)
Jacob

[Sazar]

Considering that AMD has scored major wins with Dell in various segments, I SERIOUSLY doubt AMD is going to have major issues in the next year or so.

[Heinz68]

Considering that AMD has scored major wins with Dell in various segments, I SERIOUSLY doubt AMD is going to have major issues in the next year or so.But Dell might have major issues selling AMD :) plus recalling more than 4.1 million laptop computers with Sony batteries. On top off that the houses start burning :) So maybe next year NVIDIA should buy them all Dell and Sony included :)

Man blames Dell laptop for house fire. (http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060818/NEWS/608180446)
http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/5821/houseonfirezd4.jpg
PS Dammit I just realized with all the troubles Dell has there is not going to be 2407WFP LCD A03 revision so I can finally buy one.
Off course unless somebody starts putting them 2407WFP LCD with A02 revision on fire. :)

[Daneel Olivaw]

Considering that AMD has scored major wins with Dell in various segments, I SERIOUSLY doubt AMD is going to have major issues in the next year or so.I second that. AMD has been busy building fabs and dropping manufacturing costs for large volumes. They got great deals to Asia with their Semprons, great deals with Dell for their Opterons, and I'm pretty such the X2s will sell properly in the midrange market considering the price cuts. AMD lost the performance crown, but that's not where the bulk of the money is.

[retsam]

do you guys think that intel is going to give nvidia a license for x86?...and do you guys think that amd is going to give nvidia a license for amd64 tech?.... i think not.

[tweaked]

you dont need a license to make a chip that runs X86.

nor do you need a license to make a chip that's compatible with AMD64.

[mike686]

While sifting through their belongings today, their 12-year-old son, Louis, saw that his favorite teddy bear had melted.

aaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahhaha.


aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahahahahahhahaha.

[retsam]

you dont need a license to make a chip that runs X86.
.what are you smokin...


AMD and Intel sign their first comprehensive cross-license agreement, where AMD and Intel both agree to license to each other all patents each company holds.

http://www.amd.com/us-en/Weblets/0,,7832_12670_12686,00.html


http://news.com.com/2100-1040-257059.html

A source familiar with the deal said it is essentially similar to the last one, which calls for Intel to receive royalties from AMD. Intel has patents covering aspects of the x86 instruction set used in processors for Windows-based PCs. AMD has to pay the piper and so would nvidia.this cross licensing deal would also cover intels use of amd64 ...so nvidia would then have to go and deal with AMD/ATI. also


nor do you need a license to make a chip that's compatible with AMD64.yes they do.like i said up there, nvidia would have to license the tech in one way shape or form, this isnt open source here.

[a12ctic]

amds stock is going to skyrocket, dell is making major deals with them, remember, just becasue they dont have the performance crown doesnt mean that they are going out of busniues or anything, with the aqusition of ati, they can directly compete with intel, and now that theyre taking sales away from intel (how many oems are using amd now? probobly 75% of them) i dont see how they can be in trouble.

[tweaked]

they licensed each others PATENTS.

it was more convenient and cheaper for Amd to license some patents and pay royalties for them than it was to re-invent the wheel.

your argument is assuming that because AMD CHOSE to license some Intel IP, that they are required to do so.

go ahead and show me where Cyrix and NextStep bought a license from Intel to make x86 compatible chips.

[retsam]

they licensed each others PATENTS.

it was more convenient and cheaper for Amd to license some patents and pay royalties for them than it was to re-invent the wheel.

go ahead and show me where Cyrix and NextStep bought a license from Intel to make x86 compatible chips.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyrix

The follow-on 1997 Cyrix-Intel litigation was the reverse: instead of Intel claiming that Cyrix 486 chips violated their patents, now Cyrix claimed that Intel's Pentium Pro and Pentium II violated Cyrix patents—in particular, power management and register renaming techniques. The case was expected to drag on for years but was eventually settled out of court. In fact it was settled quite promptly, by another mutual cross license agreement. Intel and Cyrix now had full and free access to each others patents. The settlement didn't say whether the Pentium Pro violated Cyrix patents or not, it simply allowed Intel to carry on making them either way—exactly as the previous settlement side-stepped Intel's claim that the Cyrix 486 violated Intel patents.



look, either way nvidia would have to license the tech they would still have to license the amd64 tech. you cant revese engineer like you used to because you would now violate the DMCA.

[ew2x4]

Performance crown doesn't equate to being successful. I think in the case of Dell + AMD, that will prove very true.

[DataMatrix]

This would pwn so hard and own Intel off the scale, but I doubt it will ever happen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyrix

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyrix#Legal_troubles

That sums it up pretty well.

[Redeemed]

I do doubt that AMD will be hurting this year either. I mean, they no longer have the fastest processors on the market, but neither are they unbearably slow either.

Infact, I think AMD is now focusing on other markets, since they have a CPU architecture that will probably remain competitive for some time to come. Now they can focus on "catching up" in the chipset and other integrated arenas where they have lacked.

All in all, I think they are doing quite good. :D

[Heinz68]

do you guys think that intel is going to give nvidia a license for x86?...and do you guys think that amd is going to give nvidia a license for amd64 tech?.... i think not.Sure if NVIDIA would buy AMD all the licenses and patents would be part off the deal.
Anyway we should not take this crystal ball prediction to seriously.

[Treason]

NVIDIA goes up 50% from here and AMD goes down 20%

That's quite a bold prediction. I wonder what will be the more realistic result?

[Zelda_fan]

amds stock is going to skyrocket, dell is making major deals with them, remember, just becasue they dont have the performance crown doesnt mean that they are going out of busniues or anything, with the aqusition of ati, they can directly compete with intel, and now that theyre taking sales away from intel (how many oems are using amd now? probobly 75% of them) i dont see how they can be in trouble.

You clearly have no clue how a business operates. Regardless of what contracts AMD signs, their stock will go down if their processors don't sell well. And they won't, becasue anyone with a brain is going to buy a Core 2.

[a12ctic]

no ****, but the general public will buy what is a better deal, when people see amd in dell they jump at it, anyway, you show me a mainstream store (bestbuy, circut city, etc) that is selling a core 2 duo, hell show me a oem thats selling a core 2 duo for a reasonable price. People will buy what is avalible and whats cheaper, atm the 3800x2 is about as cheap as you can get a good performing dual core processor.

[Zelda_fan]

no ****, but the general public will buy what is a better deal, when people see amd in dell they jump at it, anyway, you show me a mainstream store (bestbuy, circut city, etc) that is selling a core 2 duo, hell show me a oem thats selling a core 2 duo for a reasonable price. People will buy what is avalible and whats cheaper, atm the 3800x2 is about as cheap as you can get a good performing dual core processor.

You don't think Core 2 will enter the mainstream in a few months? LOLZERS!

[jAkUp]

Intel already had a large share of the market. They had a huge share of the market but about 1% of the enthusiast market. Now that is going to change.

[a12ctic]

the core 2 duo wont hit mainstream till next year, right now the x2's are the only good performing dual core chips that are massly avalible. and even when the core 2 duos do come mainstream, companys sold the p4 chips for years, up until recently, these were the were the worst performing chips in years that were released by intel, but they sure did sell, performance doesnt matter, avalibility and price do, and amd is improving avalibility and price every day.

[Zelda_fan]

the core 2 duo wont hit mainstream till next year, right now the x2's are the only good performing dual core chips that are massly avalible. and even when the core 2 duos do come mainstream, companys sold the p4 chips for years, up until recently, these were the were the worst performing chips in years that were released by intel, but they sure did sell, performance doesnt matter, avalibility and price do, and amd is improving avalibility and price every day.

I don't know what makes you think Core 2 won't hit mainstream until next year. Intel knows they have a winner on their hands, and it is in their best interests to push this chip into the mainstream ASAP. The price is right, and the motherboards are available. All Intel has to do is ramp up production (which will take a few months), and bam - Core 2 hits mainstream.

[a12ctic]

ya, except theyres a huge abundence of the netburst chips in circualation, and intel still has 90% of their production going towards the netburst chips, they would push them, if they could, but the yields are horrible, so they cant and wont risk it until they know that it will be profitable.

[Heinz68]

amds stock is going to skyrocket, dell is making major deals with them, remember, just becasue they dont have the performance crown doesnt mean that they are going out of busniues or anything, with the aqusition of ati, they can directly compete with intel, and now that theyre taking sales away from intel (how many oems are using amd now? probobly 75% of them) i dont see how they can be in trouble.
no ****, but the general public will buy what is a better deal, when people see amd in dell they jump at it, anyway, you show me a mainstream store (bestbuy, circut city, etc) that is selling a core 2 duo, hell show me a oem thats selling a core 2 duo for a reasonable price. People will buy what is avalible and whats cheaper, atm the 3800x2 is about as cheap as you can get a good performing dual core processor.Maybe better do some research before making crystal ball predictions.
Best Buy (http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?skuId=7942499&type=product&productCategoryId=pcmcat60700050016&id=1152227796440)
Circuit City (http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/HP-Pavilion-Media-Center-TV-PC-M7680N-/sem/rpsm/oid/158002/catOid/-12962/rpem/ccd/productDetail.do)
Plus Dell's Lightning Strikes Twice (http://www.dell.com/content/topics/topic.aspx/global/products/dimen/topics/en/9200_xps410_landing?c=us&l=en&s=gen)

On top it takes couple months before the manufacturers get the new boxes in the retail and sure since right now the Core 2 Duo is HOT new product it's not going to be in the cheapest box configurations.

It should not take a genius to know if a company reduces prices on many products by more than 50%, it's going to eat in the profit BIG TIME.
You can bet any money that AMD had to price cut even much deeper to sell the OEM CPUs to Dell, there is no way making big money selling to Dell, you can only make money with Dell on volume, something AMD doesn't have and can't afford..

The main reason Dell went with AMD was because Intel refused to give Dell the special preferential treatment that Dell had for long time, at least little something to do with AMD suing Intel.
Sure Dell is still going to be selling Intel product mainly and sure they have plenty off cheap Intel system, AMD has not the production capacity plus it's still more easy to sell Intel to the general public.

When AMD had the top performance chip, they needed Dell like hole in the head.
Very simple, due to the much lower production capacity they could HIGH PRICE the chips and sell anything they could produce.

The curent price war is going to hurt AMD much more than Intel.
Intel is producing volume dual-core chips based on 65nm process technology, which enables much more cost-effective manufacturing than the current AMD 90nm process.
65nm technology roughly doubles transistor density compared to the previous generation.

AMD might get little production based on 65nm process technology by the end off this year and full production in 2007 second half.
By that time Intel will start 45nm process technology, so AMD has at least 12 month disadvantage on each new process.

Final word, the above was all written by big time AMD fanboy and sure I wish AMD is going to give Intel big fight which could only benefit all off us, but if I was system upgrading right now there is no other way to go but
Core 2 Duo - based on performance/value ratio.

Anyway I just upgraded about 8 months ago, so probably will wait 12 more months before another big system upgrade so lets see what AMD is going to offer than.
To bad AMD decided to cut the support for Socket 939, I would have get the X2 5000+ CPU ONLY upgrade for now.

[nrdstrm]

NEW SYSTEMS
Umm...I must chime in here...Sure the company I work for isn't "HUGE", but trust me, Core 2 Duo is already mainstream at our company. I have sold (and delivered) at least 20 of our Core 2 systems, actually outpacing my sales on Netburst or A64/x2 systems easily this month. The prices arn't much above "mainstream" (unless you consider mainstream a $299 system, wich some might)...We sell one at $639, one at $799, and another system in the +$1000 range. We also do custom PC's, and we are selling those at +$1000 without ANY resistance from the customers on pricing once they check out performance... Quote some benchmarks and it's a done deal.

UPGRADES
Now before you all accuse me of being a fanboy, when a customer comes in for an upgrade, I ask them point blank "Do you have an Athlon 64 or an older P4". If they answer Athlon, I mention that Core 2 has taken the performance crown, but a lesser upgrade on 939/am2 would be a better way to go. People that want to upgrade from a Netburst chip, I ALWAYS tell them Core 2 (unless they are workstations for a business, then the cheapest will do fine).

Granted, we worked closely with Intel on this, and have plenty of availabilty atm (that could change day by day, as the chips are selling like hotcakes). But I give it 2 months until Core 2's become "Mainstream mid range computers"...