View Full Version : Movie Studios to Decide Console War, Says Analyst

05-08-07, 08:05 PM
Analysts believe PlayStation 3 will be console war winner, but needs price cut

Despite PlayStation 3’s currently sluggish sales, Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Michael Pachter is picking it to be the overall winner in the console war. According to him, the outcome won’t be decided on exclusive games like Final Fantasy XIII or Metal Gear Solid 4, but rather exclusive movie titles like Casino Royale. “Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios,” Pachter wrote in a 207-page industry report

“Should the studios embrace Sony's Blu-ray standard for high definition DVDs, we think Sony will gain an insurmountable advantage over Microsoft; should the studios embrace Sony rival Toshiba's HD-DVD format, we think that Microsoft can maintain its first mover advantage and will dominate software sales for years to come,” clarified Pachter.

Pachter goes into specifics about how he believes the video game console race will play out over the next few years. He guesses that Microsoft will capture 44 percent of the U.S. and European market by the end of this year, with PS3 and Wii to capture approximately 21 percent and 35 percent, respectively. Nintendo will then take over for a short while in 2008 with 39 percent share, eventually with all three console makers eventually sharing the market.

“Ultimately, we see Sony 'winning' the console war with 36 percent of the market, with Nintendo 'capturing' second place at 34 percent and Microsoft finishing third at 30 percent. We believe that this is essentially a dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits,” Pachter concluded.

The report’s forecasts are for the western market, however, as the Xbox 360’s foothold in Japan is far behind the U.S. and Europe. “These estimates do not include market shares in Japan, which we expect to be dominated by Nintendo (51 percent through 2011) and Sony (44 percent),” Pachter added.

Another analyst, Colin Sebastian at Lazard, continues to harp on the PlayStation 3’s high cost barrier to entry, stating that consumers are unlikely to purchase the console until either a price drop or greater selection of games. “We continue to believe that a significant pre-holiday ramp in PS3 unit sales is unlikely without a more robust title lineup and/or a hardware price cut,” he said.


05-08-07, 09:33 PM
Load of crap

05-09-07, 12:12 AM
The analyst is an idiot? I'm not going to be persuaded to buy a PS3 because of Casino Royale or other movies like it, lol..

05-09-07, 01:23 AM
The analyst is an idiot? I'm not going to be persuaded to buy a PS3 because of Casino Royale or other movies like it, lol..
But what about the average consumer? 3 people at work have bought PS3's. They say the fact that it had a hi def player built in sealed the deal for them.

05-09-07, 05:04 AM
Yet from all the people I know from University (who are into tech by the way), have not been impressed by the PS3, or Blu-Ray for that matter. I've manage to convince 2 people to buy HD-DVD, not that matters or anything and I'm not saying HD-DVD is necessarily better either, in some people eyes BR is better, others HD-DVD.

My point is, the analyst is implying that games will not matter as much in this generation. That's absurd.

You're telling me that if a movie like suppose Spiderman 3 comes out for Blu-Ray exclusive, or whatever other movie similar to Casino Royale popularity (which isn't that much by the way), that will make more of a difference than if suppose Grand Theft Auto IV was a PS3 exclusive?