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Old 07-19-07, 03:51 PM   #3
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Default Re: Futurists: Both Formats Will Grow

Originally Posted by Burner_Tbird2
In anycase a stalemate is just not possible, this isn't a war for some political motivation its just dollars and cents. Once a leader emerges the accountants on the losing team will inform those in charge that its time to pull the plug.
Sure it is - in today's market there is room for both. Just like DVD+R and DVD-R, or Sirius and XM. Eventually they will find ways to be compatible (Dual format players and/or discs).

Sony will not give up because they bet the farm on Blu-Ray and also because they have the PS3 userbase to sell to.

Toshiba will not give up because if Blu-Ray outright wins and replaces DVD, then Toshiba loses the farm - losing both DVD licensing *and* HD DVD licensing fees. (HD DVD preserves DVD licensing fees through the HD DVD/DVD combo disc and twindisc) Further, it is in Microsoft's best interest to keep HD DVD alive because it not only slows down Sony and makes the PS3 somewhat less attractive, but it also gives them time to market their hidef downloadable marketplace. Toshiba can continue to ramp up its userbase with cheaper standalone players saturating the market, eventually dropping to $199 and below in places like Walmart.

And, the studio with the most influence (Time Warner) has developed their own disc format "TotalHD" which has both formats on the same disc, a format which they will receive licensing fees from if other studios adopt it - which may have to happen if both formats grow as analysts expect. So here too, the most influential content provider wants a stalemate as well to float their hybrid disc format that they will receive royalties from by studios that adopt it. Time Warner also has numerous patents invested in HD DVD, so they will get money from those patents as well when a Blu-Ray owner buys a TotalHD disc!

I don't see how either side could possibly throw in the towel, and I don't see any forseeable way the war can end with both sides spending cash. Both hardware companies behind each respective format have the farm riding on each respective format and the most influential content provider desires a stalemate to promote their own hybrid disc and HD DVD patents.
We're all in it together.

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