Who is buying high definition equipment right now? Enthusiasts. People like you and me. We represent around 1% of the marketplace, and that is why DVD is outselling HD 100 to 1.
When one of the formats starts successfully selling (and by successful I mean it hits 30% of all media sales), then you can declare a winner. Right now, it's anyones ballgame. Sure, blu-ray has a leg up with studio support, but that can change faster than the wind blows.
Consumers are not buying HD as of now. Why? Price. Neither format will successfully penetrate the marketplace at their current pricing. Average Joe will NEVER pay $400 for a player. EVER. Even if HD-DVD dies off blu-ray will never gain a foothold at $400 minimum for a player.