I was talking more about paper release than actual hardware release. I don't expect nVidia to release hardware within that time scale. But a paper release can still have adverse implecations as far a buyers are concerned. I, personaly, think it would be better if ATi didn't respond to the NV30 release (unless it is a more capable chip), they have the user base to absorb any challenge it may produce with the current gen. I also think it would be sad to write off the R300 in that way so soon. We may be getting closer to a 5 month figure, but it's still way too short.
As I said before I have used four R9700s and three of which are being RMA'd. I find it hard to justify having solid faith in the current generation without being told that it is going to be replaced so soon. It's alot of cash, effort, and time to invest on a whim.
Besides a number of little birdies have told me that there is more to the NV30 delay than TSMC woes. I just think that the market needs more than one player to make it good for the consumer, otherwise we'd all be using windoze and intel and none of us would have a reason to argue in these forums
The out of date
thing is purely subjective, I have two machines at home, one runs an 8500 (Home movie centre) and the other runs GF4 (Development), and I forget the server (which is using an ATi RageII+DVD. Ha!). None of the two main machines are out of date. It's just that I trust one more that the other for certain things.