i said i agree, meaning its my opinion that nv40 will turn out to be slow when running shader model 3.
Based on what, your thoroughly unscientific analysis here?
SM 3.0 is supposed to help improve performance in certain areas vs SM 2.0. Crytek said as much, that their SM 3.0 add-on will be primilarly to improve performance over SM 2.0. Image quality in FarCry between PS 2.0 and PS 3.0 will be very similar.
I suggest waiting for DirectX 9.0c to come out, waiting for the FarCry SM 3.0 add on to come out, and waiting for some non-buggy Forceware drivers before jumping to conclusions about the NV40's performance in FarCry.