PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe

Big Ev · 03-20-06, 02:06 PM

PREFACE: This is my opinion and not fact. I welcome others opinions for, against, or totally radical from either category. I look forward to your responses and own opinion. I started this post in another forum, but it turned in to a total **** show. This forum, in my opinion, the user base is more educated and should produce some healthy discussion.

So the PS3 has all been delayed until November of 2006 for world wide release:http://www.gamespot.com/news/6145972.html

To my point. The PS3, being released this late, has already been defeated here in North America and Europe. Microsoft did stumble out of the blocks at launch but has installed small user base that is going to keep growing while the PS3 is stlll waiting to be released. By the time the PS3 launches, Microsoft will command a large share of the market and the share that they don't command they will win over with a price cut. See this is where Microsoft is genius. The problem with the first Xbox is they locked themselves in long term contracts on fixed prices. So as the price of the Nvidia GPU went down to the rest of the market, Microsoft was still paying premium prices for an mid-level GPU. The same goes for the processor that Intel provided and the DVD drives from various manufacters. This killed them since they were all ready losing a significant amount of money on each unit sold and when the price cut came, the bill of materials was still the same. Now with the Xbox 360, Microsoft wised up and followed the route that Nintendo had taken with the GameCube. Contracts with adjustable declining rates. Microsoft will still spend a slight premium on their parts, since the ATI GPU they are using is custom to the Xbox 360, but it won't be exoberant. Hence the X-mas time price cut will be KEY since Microsoft won't take a major hit in the money lost in per unit sold, and when mommy and daddy go to buy a new game system for Johnny 8-year old and see the Xbox 360 for $299 with all the bells and whistles and then see the PS3 for $499-$599, well the choice is clear. Xbox 360 most likely have the same games, Johnny will be happy, and the parents saved $200-$300.

Now the one thing that the PS3 does have going for it is Blu-ray. Blu-ray is going to be expensive, but Sony is going to provide a gaming machine AND a quality Blu-ray player at the bargin price of $500 (predicted price, though. Definitely not set in stone). Taking into consideration that Blu-ray players now are going to be costing $1000+ and they won't drop much more by November 2006 since those hardware companies want to profit off their product are not looking to create and installed user base by taking a loss on their hardware and making up for it on software sales. If Blu-ray movies are in full force and in demand come November 2006, the PS3 could do very well for itself, but it is going to take longer than 8 months to establish Blu-ray as viable movie medium. People are very invested in to their DVD home theatres and upgrading to a 1080p TV and Blu-ray player may deter them.

My second point, and not so business related, is that the Xbox 360 is going to match and/or blow the doors off the first generation PS3 titles. Me personally as game developer, going over in detail the Xbox 360 hardware, there is wealth of power there that we all ready have a grasp on. I do not develop on the Xbox 360, but from an engineering stand point, it is mind boggling. Bottle necks are virutally gone, the potential for complex physics is abound, and the 64-bit RISC processors are damn efficent. I have recently seen the Unreal 3 engine first hand early this week and it was jaw dropping. To put things in perspective, examining a gun in this pre-production game, the polygon count came in at a shade over 6,000 polygons. The detail was incredible and goregous. The average player model in the Source Engine (Half-Life/Counter-Strike) is only 6,000 polygons. It is truly impressive and even this level of graphical power is still in it infantile stages on the Xbox 360. Come November, when games finally release to the Xbox 360 that are polished and built for the system (not hasty ports like Quake 4, or even Call of Duty 2), it is going to push systems out the door in a hurry. A system that can match the PS3 and probably surpass it at first, and $300 less, the choice is clear. Now I understand some are you are thinking "graphics don't make games, gameplay does." And you know what, you're right, because you are educated gamers. However development usually focuses on joe-blow consumer who is easily drawn in by shiny objects and really could give a **** once the game is paid for by the consumer. A sad, a very true reality. (Side Note: Even though I am young and just starting out I am making it a mission statement that I will not settle for an utter crap game. I will leave a project if I feel what we are going to release is going to be ****. I still keep true to my gaming roots). Now the PS3 is incredibly powerful, but technology is very alien to me, and even to some very experienced and talented developers I know personally in the industry. The PS3 is going to provide a wealth of power, but until we can really wrap our heads around it, it is going to remain largely untapped and not blow the Xbox 360 out of the water until much later aka Xmas 2007.

So in conclusion, I envision the PS3 having amazing success in Japan. Sony has a strong fan base there and the Japanese gamers are clearly not digging the Xbox 360. However here in North America and Europe, the average gamer is gobbling up the Xbox 360 as fast as possible (which isn't too fast, since Microsoft has been slow keeping up with demand) and Microsoft is building their base while their developers and working on and in polishing some very impressive and visually stunning games. I'm sorry PS3, but I think you lost this war before it even started.

Last thoughts on the Revolution
Now I am really loving Nintendo's Revolution, believe it or not. Yes, at first I was very turned off by the "wand-like" controller, but I really think Nintendo going to have great success across the globe. See, they are not looking to compete with the Xbox 360 or the PS3, not at all. Nintendo view's the Revolution as a separate product all together, and will market it that way. I have not seen a Revolution, or even its specs, but its funky controller lets the mind run wild with new game innovations, which this industry really needs, and the back library that Nintendo is going to provide is brillant. Old school retro gamers and the casual gamer will gobble this unit up and at $99-$149, its quite affordable.

EDIT for grammar

S.I.N · 03-20-06, 02:31 PM

PS3 failing anywhere is like saying M$ will fail with it's next OS and wont make billions in the long run because it was delayed. Wishfull thinking but it wont happen. I am not even a harcore console gamer anymore and I can tell PS3 will eat the competition alive even if it cost 500 dollar menu sandwiches.

PeterJensen · 03-20-06, 04:04 PM

You can rest a sure that Vista will not fail. After i have been using the latest beta in a test center at work i can tell you that MS Vista will be a great leap over Windows XP.

|MaguS| · 03-20-06, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeterJensen

You can rest a sure that Vista will not fail. After i have been using the latest beta in a test center at work i can tell you that MS Vista will be a great leap over Windows XP.

We know it wont fail... he was using it as example by comparing Sony in the Console world to MS in the OS world...

evilchris · 03-20-06, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by |MaguS|

We know it wont fail... he was using it as example by comparing Sony in the Console world to MS in the OS world...

When the Genesis was on top I'm sure people thought Sega would never fail. When the NES was dominating I'm sure no one thought Nintendo could ever be outsold in the console world. Never say never.

|MaguS| · 03-20-06, 04:16 PM

Yes but they made moves that hurt their relationship with developers... developers so far are not leaving Sony's camp.

evilchris · 03-20-06, 04:19 PM

Microsoft could end this war in my opinion. Give the console away for free. Just like HP printers. Sony doesn't have the reserves to do that and survive. Microsoft has $50,000,000,000 cash in the bank. That would be a hell of a move, a TRUE loss leader!

|MaguS| · 03-20-06, 04:53 PM

I don't think MS's Investors would ever approve of that...

AlphaWolf_HK · 03-20-06, 04:58 PM

Well, not for free, but they could drop the price to something rediculously low, like $100 or something, that way you don't get people grabbing the console just because they can.

That would be a double edged sword though. History has shown that the price of a product has an impact on its perceived quality. Namely, if it is low priced, then it is viewed as an economy product for the budged minded consumer, whereas the more expensive consoles would be viewed as quality products meant for "serious gamers," etc.

Think kinda like that trump tower in new york where he couldn't sell any of the condos, so he raised the price and they sold out fast.

But it would still really kill sony's sales if they did this. Especially for those who are interested entirely in the games and not necessarily the hardware. E.g. somebody who will buy whatever system they can get ahold of in order to play game X, whether that system is made by sony or microsoft.

msxyz · 03-20-06, 05:22 PM

First, M$ should increase the production so that the Xbox could be widely available at last.

Decreasing the cost of the console might actually hurt its image at this early point. Many people consider cheap=crap

Microsoft should invest more into developers. Console wars are won on software. Exclusive titles are those who shift the market. As of now the list of exclusive is quite impressive but Microsoft should try harder. Right now Microsoft secured some potential hits (Mistwalker RPGs, N3, Too human, GoW) but to win the casual mainstream gamers it should try to win some big established franchise.

It would be a better way to invest money (even in the eyes of investors) than taking a bigger loss on the hardware sales.

H3avyM3tal · 03-20-06, 05:23 PM

You know what I find really funny? Most ppl here say that games are what will make this war what it is, but nowhere, nowhere, they are mentioned by the posts in here (not THIS thread only).

It's all about what the console will cost, what can M$ do with all their money, Sony is screwed cuz the ps3 will cost lots, and other various comments.
My point being is, if ppl think that this war will be won based on console price, ppl are very mistaken.

Sony already have the largest fan base of the three, she knows it, MS knows it, and as was mentioned by nintendo (I really don't know what to say about them, as the company and the fans thinks in opposite ways), what will win here are games.

While I doubt either MS nor Sony will 'lose' anything, I am in more thinking that this will just continue as it is. Sony being the most successful out of the three already have enough support, enough killer apps, and more than enough fans who would like to see the ps3.

And here is the the stunner: This "war" will be won by games. So making assumptions based on console price tag and hardware capabilities is totslly invalid.

And that is my honest oppinion.

Toss3 · 03-20-06, 05:38 PM

I'm sorry I had to post this, but these Xbox360 vs. Ps3 threads are getting on my nerves; they serve no point/ they only end up as flame wars/ gives us no facts/state only personal opinions! And speaking as a developer you really show your talents by saying a console you haven't even developed for is as good as or slower than the Xbox360, "My second point, and not so business related, is that the Xbox 360 is going to match and/or blow the doors off the first generation PS3 titles."("A system that can match the PS3 and probably surpass it at first..").
At least I'm glad there are other developers out there that really want to give us consumers the best by learning to develop games on consoles and hardware they don't know yet. I'd also like to add that the Ps3 has about as many launch titles as there are games thus far for the xbox360.
This is a prediction done by professional analysts: http://www.maxps3.com/2006/03/16/ana...g-term-impact/

So please don't start threads like this anymore, especially if you haven't done your research! You didn't give us any new information; you only took the side of the xbox360 fans. As far as I'm concerned I don't believe taking sides as a developer is a good thing; you should have an open mind and test both systems before posting your opinion.

Btw. I'm no Ps3 fan, in fact I don't like either company, but I do like playing games and that's why I plan on owning both consoles(have an xbox360 already). So don't get me wrong here, I like the xbox360, but noone can see into the future and that's why one should wait until both consoles are released before posting that one of the consoles is better than the other.

03-20-06, 02:06 PM	#1
Big Ev Registered User Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 97	PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe PREFACE: This is my opinion and not fact. I welcome others opinions for, against, or totally radical from either category. I look forward to your responses and own opinion. I started this post in another forum, but it turned in to a total ** show. This forum, in my opinion, the user base is more educated and should produce some healthy discussion. So the PS3 has all been delayed until November of 2006 for world wide release:http://www.gamespot.com/news/6145972.html To my point. The PS3, being released this late, has already been defeated here in North America and Europe. Microsoft did stumble out of the blocks at launch but has installed small user base that is going to keep growing while the PS3 is stlll waiting to be released. By the time the PS3 launches, Microsoft will command a large share of the market and the share that they don't command they will win over with a price cut. See this is where Microsoft is genius. The problem with the first Xbox is they locked themselves in long term contracts on fixed prices. So as the price of the Nvidia GPU went down to the rest of the market, Microsoft was still paying premium prices for an mid-level GPU. The same goes for the processor that Intel provided and the DVD drives from various manufacters. This killed them since they were all ready losing a significant amount of money on each unit sold and when the price cut came, the bill of materials was still the same. Now with the Xbox 360, Microsoft wised up and followed the route that Nintendo had taken with the GameCube. Contracts with adjustable declining rates. Microsoft will still spend a slight premium on their parts, since the ATI GPU they are using is custom to the Xbox 360, but it won't be exoberant. Hence the X-mas time price cut will be KEY since Microsoft won't take a major hit in the money lost in per unit sold, and when mommy and daddy go to buy a new game system for Johnny 8-year old and see the Xbox 360 for $299 with all the bells and whistles and then see the PS3 for $499-$599, well the choice is clear. Xbox 360 most likely have the same games, Johnny will be happy, and the parents saved $200-$300. Now the one thing that the PS3 does have going for it is Blu-ray. Blu-ray is going to be expensive, but Sony is going to provide a gaming machine AND a quality Blu-ray player at the bargin price of $500 (predicted price, though. Definitely not set in stone). Taking into consideration that Blu-ray players now are going to be costing $1000+ and they won't drop much more by November 2006 since those hardware companies want to profit off their product are not looking to create and installed user base by taking a loss on their hardware and making up for it on software sales. If Blu-ray movies are in full force and in demand come November 2006, the PS3 could do very well for itself, but it is going to take longer than 8 months to establish Blu-ray as viable movie medium. People are very invested in to their DVD home theatres and upgrading to a 1080p TV and Blu-ray player may deter them. My second point, and not so business related, is that the Xbox 360 is going to match and/or blow the doors off the first generation PS3 titles. Me personally as game developer, going over in detail the Xbox 360 hardware, there is wealth of power there that we all ready have a grasp on. I do not develop on the Xbox 360, but from an engineering stand point, it is mind boggling. Bottle necks are virutally gone, the potential for complex physics is abound, and the 64-bit RISC processors are damn efficent. I have recently seen the Unreal 3 engine first hand early this week and it was jaw dropping. To put things in perspective, examining a gun in this pre-production game, the polygon count came in at a shade over 6,000 polygons. The detail was incredible and goregous. The average player model in the Source Engine (Half-Life/Counter-Strike) is only 6,000 polygons. It is truly impressive and even this level of graphical power is still in it infantile stages on the Xbox 360. Come November, when games finally release to the Xbox 360 that are polished and built for the system (not hasty ports like Quake 4, or even Call of Duty 2), it is going to push systems out the door in a hurry. A system that can match the PS3 and probably surpass it at first, and $300 less, the choice is clear. Now I understand some are you are thinking "graphics don't make games, gameplay does." And you know what, you're right, because you are educated gamers. However development usually focuses on joe-blow consumer who is easily drawn in by shiny objects and really could give a once the game is paid for by the consumer. A sad, a very true reality. (Side Note: Even though I am young and just starting out I am making it a mission statement that I will not settle for an utter crap game. I will leave a project if I feel what we are going to release is going to be . I still keep true to my gaming roots). Now the PS3 is incredibly powerful, but technology is very alien to me, and even to some very experienced and talented developers I know personally in the industry. The PS3 is going to provide a wealth of power, but until we can really wrap our heads around it, it is going to remain largely untapped and not blow the Xbox 360 out of the water until much later aka Xmas 2007. So in conclusion, I envision the PS3 having amazing success in Japan. Sony has a strong fan base there and the Japanese gamers are clearly not digging the Xbox 360. However here in North America and Europe, the average gamer is gobbling up the Xbox 360 as fast as possible (which isn't too fast, since Microsoft has been slow keeping up with demand) and Microsoft is building their base while their developers and working on and in polishing some very impressive and visually stunning games. I'm sorry PS3, but I think you lost this war before it even started. Last thoughts on the Revolution** Now I am really loving Nintendo's Revolution, believe it or not. Yes, at first I was very turned off by the "wand-like" controller, but I really think Nintendo going to have great success across the globe. See, they are not looking to compete with the Xbox 360 or the PS3, not at all. Nintendo view's the Revolution as a separate product all together, and will market it that way. I have not seen a Revolution, or even its specs, but its funky controller lets the mind run wild with new game innovations, which this industry really needs, and the back library that Nintendo is going to provide is brillant. Old school retro gamers and the casual gamer will gobble this unit up and at $99-$149, its quite affordable. EDIT for grammar __________________ My rig AMD Athlon64 X2 4400+ @ 2.5GHz ASUS A8N SLI Deluxe BFG 7800GTX OC 460/1300 2GB (2x1GB) RAM DDR400 Corsair XMS 74GB SATA Western Digital 10,000 RPM Windows XP x64

03-20-06, 02:31 PM	#2
S.I.N UnRegistered User Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: All over Posts: 6,132	Re: PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe PS3 failing anywhere is like saying M$ will fail with it's next OS and wont make billions in the long run because it was delayed. Wishfull thinking but it wont happen. I am not even a harcore console gamer anymore and I can tell PS3 will eat the competition alive even if it cost 500 dollar menu sandwiches.

03-20-06, 04:04 PM	#3
PeterJensen I'm a Viking. Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: Denmark Posts: 4,030	Re: PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe You can rest a sure that Vista will not fail. After i have been using the latest beta in a test center at work i can tell you that MS Vista will be a great leap over Windows XP. __________________ New system : AMD Phenom II X4 955 @ 3.8Ghz BLACK EDITION - 8 GB Kingston DDR3 - 1 x Velociraptor 150GB - Gigabyte GA-MA770T-UD3P - 1 x XFX 5850 1GB DDR5 - Coolermaster HAF932 with NorthQ CPU Watercooling.

03-20-06, 04:16 PM	#6
\|MaguS\| Firefly > You Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Florida Posts: 22,890	Re: PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe Yes but they made moves that hurt their relationship with developers... developers so far are not leaving Sony's camp. __________________ {Intel Core i7 920}{Noctua NH-U12P}{6GB OCZ DDR1333}{Gigabyte GA-EX58-UD3R-SLI}{2x eVGA GTX 260-216}{WD 640GB}{Zalman Module 850w} Text "HAITI" to 90999 to Donate $10 to the Red Cross (Text is Free)

03-20-06, 04:19 PM	#7
evilchris BANNED Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: San Diego, CA Posts: 11,409	Re: PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe Microsoft could end this war in my opinion. Give the console away for free. Just like HP printers. Sony doesn't have the reserves to do that and survive. Microsoft has $50,000,000,000 cash in the bank. That would be a hell of a move, a TRUE loss leader!

03-20-06, 04:53 PM	#8
\|MaguS\| Firefly > You Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Florida Posts: 22,890	Re: PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe I don't think MS's Investors would ever approve of that... __________________ {Intel Core i7 920}{Noctua NH-U12P}{6GB OCZ DDR1333}{Gigabyte GA-EX58-UD3R-SLI}{2x eVGA GTX 260-216}{WD 640GB}{Zalman Module 850w} Text "HAITI" to 90999 to Donate $10 to the Red Cross (Text is Free)

03-20-06, 04:58 PM	#9
AlphaWolf_HK My avatar is NSFW Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Sonoran Desert Posts: 12,104	Re: PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe Well, not for free, but they could drop the price to something rediculously low, like $100 or something, that way you don't get people grabbing the console just because they can. That would be a double edged sword though. History has shown that the price of a product has an impact on its perceived quality. Namely, if it is low priced, then it is viewed as an economy product for the budged minded consumer, whereas the more expensive consoles would be viewed as quality products meant for "serious gamers," etc. Think kinda like that trump tower in new york where he couldn't sell any of the condos, so he raised the price and they sold out fast. But it would still really kill sony's sales if they did this. Especially for those who are interested entirely in the games and not necessarily the hardware. E.g. somebody who will buy whatever system they can get ahold of in order to play game X, whether that system is made by sony or microsoft. __________________ "I hate conservatives, but I really fcking hate liberals." -- Matt Stone*

03-20-06, 05:22 PM	#10
msxyz Hybrid Microprocessor Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: Milan (Italy) Posts: 2,063	Re: PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe First, M$ should increase the production so that the Xbox could be widely available at last. Decreasing the cost of the console might actually hurt its image at this early point. Many people consider cheap=crap Microsoft should invest more into developers. Console wars are won on software. Exclusive titles are those who shift the market. As of now the list of exclusive is quite impressive but Microsoft should try harder. Right now Microsoft secured some potential hits (Mistwalker RPGs, N3, Too human, GoW) but to win the casual mainstream gamers it should try to win some big established franchise. It would be a better way to invest money (even in the eyes of investors) than taking a bigger loss on the hardware sales. __________________ Powered by: Pentium Dual E2180 (2GHz, 200MHz FSB) Abit L95C (The one and only mATX with dual PCIe slots!) + 2x1 Geil Black Dragon PC6400 XFX 9600GSO 384MB Little freak wonder

03-20-06, 05:23 PM	#11
H3avyM3tal SB's Twin Blades Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Israel Posts: 1,008	Re: PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe You know what I find really funny? Most ppl here say that games are what will make this war what it is, but nowhere, nowhere, they are mentioned by the posts in here (not THIS thread only). It's all about what the console will cost, what can M$ do with all their money, Sony is screwed cuz the ps3 will cost lots, and other various comments. My point being is, if ppl think that this war will be won based on console price, ppl are very mistaken. Sony already have the largest fan base of the three, she knows it, MS knows it, and as was mentioned by nintendo (I really don't know what to say about them, as the company and the fans thinks in opposite ways), what will win here are games. While I doubt either MS nor Sony will 'lose' anything, I am in more thinking that this will just continue as it is. Sony being the most successful out of the three already have enough support, enough killer apps, and more than enough fans who would like to see the ps3. And here is the the stunner: This "war" will be won by games. So making assumptions based on console price tag and hardware capabilities is totslly invalid. And that is my honest oppinion.

03-20-06, 05:38 PM	#12
Toss3 .<<o>>. Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Finland Posts: 4,397	Re: PS3 dead on arrival in North America and Europe I'm sorry I had to post this, but these Xbox360 vs. Ps3 threads are getting on my nerves; they serve no point/ they only end up as flame wars/ gives us no facts/state only personal opinions! And speaking as a developer you really show your talents by saying a console you haven't even developed for is as good as or slower than the Xbox360, "My second point, and not so business related, is that the Xbox 360 is going to match and/or blow the doors off the first generation PS3 titles."("A system that can match the PS3 and probably surpass it at first.."). At least I'm glad there are other developers out there that really want to give us consumers the best by learning to develop games on consoles and hardware they don't know yet. I'd also like to add that the Ps3 has about as many launch titles as there are games thus far for the xbox360. This is a prediction done by professional analysts: http://www.maxps3.com/2006/03/16/ana...g-term-impact/ So please don't start threads like this anymore, especially if you haven't done your research! You didn't give us any new information; you only took the side of the xbox360 fans. As far as I'm concerned I don't believe taking sides as a developer is a good thing; you should have an open mind and test both systems before posting your opinion. Btw. I'm no Ps3 fan, in fact I don't like either company, but I do like playing games and that's why I plan on owning both consoles(have an xbox360 already). So don't get me wrong here, I like the xbox360, but noone can see into the future and that's why one should wait until both consoles are released before posting that one of the consoles is better than the other. __________________ : :Asus Rampage II Gene : : Core i7 920 4000Mhz : : 6Gb 1600Mhz A-Data DDR3 : : Club3D Theatron Agrippa : : Intel 80GB SSD : : 2xSamsung F1 750Gb : : Sapphire 5850 @ 950/1200Mhz : : : :Benq FP241W : : Optoma HD80 Projector + 92" Screen : : Genelec 8020B speakers : : Sony MDR-XB700 Headphones : : Logitech G11 : : Logitech G9x : :

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