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Old 10-30-08, 04:50 PM   #1
nekrosoft13
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Default Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

Blu-ray is in a death spiral. 12 months from now Blu-ray will be a videophile niche, not a mass market product.

With only a 4% share of US movie disc sales and HD download capability arriving, the Blu-ray disc Association (BDA) is still smoking dope. Even $150 Blu-ray players won’t save it.

16 months ago I called the HD war for Blu-ray. My bad. Who dreamed they could both lose?

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
Delusional Sony exec Rick Clancy needs to put the crack pipe down and really look at the market dynamics.

In a nutshell: consumers drive the market and they don’t care about Blu-ray’s theoretical advantages. Especially during a world-wide recession.

Remember Betamax? SACD? Minidisk? Laser Disk? DVD-Audio? There are more losers than winners in consumer storage formats.

It’s all about volume. 8 months after Toshiba threw in the towel, Blu-ray still doesn’t have it.

The Blu-ray Disc Association doesn’t get it
$150 Blu-ray disc players are a good start, but it won’t take Blu-ray over the finish line. The BDA is stuck in the past with a flawed five-year-old strategy.

The original game plan
Two things killed the original strategy. First the fight with HD DVD stalled the industry for two years. Initial enthusiasm for high definition video on disk was squandered.

Second, the advent of low cost up-sampling DVD players dramatically cut the video quality advantage of Blu-ray DVDs. Suddenly, for $100, your average consumer can put good video on their HDTV using standard DVDs. When Blu-ray got started no one dreamed this would happen.

Piggies at the trough
The Blu-ray Disc Association hoped for a massive cash bonanza as millions of consumers discovered that standard DVDs looked awful on HDTV. To cash in they loaded Blu-ray licenses with costly fees. Blu-ray doesn’t just suck for consumers: small producers can’t afford it either.

According to Digital Content Producer Blu-ray doesn’t cut it for business:

Recordable discs don’t play reliably across the range of Blu-ray players - so you can’t do low-volume runs yourself.
Service bureau reproduction runs $20 per single layer disc in quantities of 300 or less.
Hollywood style printed/replicated Blu-ray discs are considerably cheaper once you reach the thousand unit quantity: just $3.50 per disc.
High-quality authoring programs like Sony Blu-print or Sonic Solutions Scenarist cost $40,000.
The Advanced Access Content System - the already hacked DRM - has a one-time fee of $3000 plus a per project cost of almost $1600 plus $.04 per disk. And who defines “project?”
Then the Blu-ray disc Association charges another $3000 annually to use their very exclusive - on 4% of all video disks! - logo.
That’s why you don’t see quirky indie flicks on Blu-ray. Small producers can’t afford it - even though they shoot in HDV and HD.

The Storage Bits take
Don’t expect Steve Jobs to budge from his “bag of hurt” understatement. Or Final Cut Studio support for Blu-ray. I suspect that Jobs is using his Hollywood clout from his board seat on Disney and his control of iTunes to try to talk sense to the BDA.

But the BDA won’t budge. They, like so much of Hollywood, are stuck in the past.

A forward looking strategy would include:

Recognition that consumers don’t need Blu-ray. It is a nice-to-have and must be priced accordingly.
Accept the money spent on Blu-ray is gone and will never earn back the investment. Then you can begin thinking clearly about how to maximize Blu-ray penetration.
The average consumer will probably pay $50 more for a Blu-ray player that is competitive with the average up-sampling DVD player. Most of the current Blu-ray players are junk: slow, feature-poor and way over-priced.
Disk price margins can’t be higher than DVDs and probably should be less. The question the studios need to ask is: “do we want to be selling disks in 5 years?” No? Then keep it up. Turn distribution over to your very good friends at Comcast, Apple and Time Warner. You’ll be like Procter & Gamble paying Safeway to stock your products.
Fire all the market research firms telling you how great it is going to be. They are playing you. Your #1 goal: market share. High volume is your only chance to earn your way out of this mess and keep some control of your distribution.
Time is short. Timid incrementalism will kill you.

Like Agent Smith delivering the bad news to a complacent cop: “No, Lieutenant, your men are already dead.”

http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=365
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Old 10-30-08, 05:13 PM   #2
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

The horse, it's already dead.
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Old 10-30-08, 05:52 PM   #3
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

Yeah, just like PC gaming is dead, right?

Just wait until The Dark Knight comes out... I'm sure it will smash records etc. This is really Blu-ray's first year of big blockbusters from the theatres all to itself... need to give it more time.

Dead or not, I am enjoying my Iron Man Blu-ray at the moment
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Old 10-30-08, 05:58 PM   #4
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

I don't understand. What are we going to do for HD video if Blu-ray dies?? There is no comparison between a upscaled DVD and a native 1080P video.

Oh well....I guess if it does disappear that means there will be loads of super cheap blu-rays to buy...
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Old 10-30-08, 06:36 PM   #5
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

Quote:
Originally Posted by einstein_314 View Post
I don't understand. What are we going to do for HD video if Blu-ray dies?? There is no comparison between a upscaled DVD and a native 1080P video.

Oh well....I guess if it does disappear that means there will be loads of super cheap blu-rays to buy...
Digital Distribution. I can see it happening especially when netflix is having such success. Soon the 360 will have full support including 720p streaming and I know there are a few blu-ray players that work with netflix as well.
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Old 10-30-08, 06:42 PM   #6
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

Quote:
Originally Posted by einstein_314 View Post
I don't understand. What are we going to do for HD video if Blu-ray dies?? There is no comparison between a upscaled DVD and a native 1080P video.

Oh well....I guess if it does disappear that means there will be loads of super cheap blu-rays to buy...
Digital Distribution is taking off. Also, Holodisc was announced before HD-DVD and Blu-Ray even launched. Holodisc is supposed to see 300GB versions out by late 2009, and the 1.5TB discs out in 2012. Imagine 1080p video, uncompressed.
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Old 10-30-08, 07:53 PM   #7
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

So how much bandwidth is required to watch a streaming blu-ray quality 1080p video with high quality surround audio?
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Old 10-30-08, 07:59 PM   #8
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptNKILL View Post
So how much bandwidth is required to watch a streaming blu-ray quality 1080p video with high quality surround audio?
That's the thing, it won't be as good as 1080p on Blu-ray. Yea, dd is nice but internet speed is no where near fast enough to download 10+gb. Also, companies such as comcast are putting bandwith caps on their service so that doesn't help much either. I don't see Blu-ray going anywhere any time soon.
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Old 10-30-08, 08:00 PM   #9
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

Okay, only problem with digital distribution, is that although sure it might be great in the US, it sucks everywhere else. Take here in canada for example. I have a choice between iTunes (which I don't think has HD for canada) and .... that's it.

As for holodisc.....If blu-ray can't make it. I don't see how this holodisc will.

I think the main problem is everyone was afraid to jump on the blu-ray band wagon in case it failed. But now it's failing because nobody jumped on it. The same thing will happen with holodisc.
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Old 10-30-08, 08:39 PM   #10
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

Blu-ray is drowning. The biggest problem with it gaining traction is cost. When Joe 6 Pack sees a DVD for $15 and the same movie on BD for $30, he won't be buying the Blu-ray.
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Old 10-30-08, 08:53 PM   #11
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

Yeah price is a big factor, but I think the biggest problem is that 96% of people don't even care if their movies are higher quality.

The wide spread use of things like iTunes, Netflix, youtube, and other video download services (legal or not) shows that people generally just want to have their media whenever they want it, even if it looks inferior to a DVD.

Lowering the price would help but I just don't think enough people give a damn for high definition video to take off any time soon.

It isn't like DVD where it offered lots of completely new features, convenience, better reliability and the huge jump to practical digital video. Those are things that just about everyone wanted after wearing out VHS tapes that took up a lot of space, required manual rewinding and looked worse every time you watched them.

I honestly thought BD was doing better than this article said, but it doesn't surprise me that its struggling.
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Old 10-30-08, 10:43 PM   #12
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Default Re: Blu-ray is dead - heckuva job, Sony!

1. Blu Ray is not dead just very very slow adoption due to ridiculous pricing on movies.

2. Netflix and Tivo signed a deal for streaming video over a ISP.

3. Streaming is good as long as the ISP's don't care about competition and limit your bandwidth like Comcast did @ 250GB a month.

4. Me personally I will always want a hard copy of a movie in HD not to mention I want the best image quality I can get.

5. Sony needs to pull there head out of there ass and drop the prices for faster adoption and the fact that the economy is in a major slowdown.

6. I really miss HD-DVD.
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