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Old 07-31-02, 06:12 PM   #25
pelly
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Actually...I doubt that the "taping-out" situation had any large part in today's stock situation...It's not like Nvidia is just starting NV30....

I firmly believe the following are to blame for the stock price:

1) Increasing competition
2) Poor Xbox sales prior to price-cut
3) Poor Apple sales
4) Lack of a new product for quarter that just ended
5) Poor adoption of original nForce by market
6) Trouble with TSMC fab ( delays, etc..> )

The vast majority of these factors are out of Nvidia's hands...

The stock price should dramatically rise after the following:

1) nForce2 hits market with twice as many copanies backing than with the original nForce
2) Nvidia "officially" wins Xbox2 design competition ( rumored to have already happened )
3) NV3X hits market
4) Professional-based products introduced through Leadtek hit market
5) Switch to UMC for fab

These are all governed actions by Nvidia....they will surely increase stock-holder's confidence...




Considering Nvidia's 100-day turnaround from taping to release....an "early" release would hardly be illegal....
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Old 07-31-02, 06:30 PM   #26
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yeah probably the time to buy some warrants on Nvidias stock.
Maybe waiting 2 to 3 days is fine but a long term warrant on nvidia stock would be fine - a call of course not a put

Definitly nForce2 will sell a lot better than nForce 1. nForce1 was a very good product but a lot of mainboard manufacturing companies were carefull and sticked to that VIA crap.
With nForce2 this will change a lot.
X-Box sales are not that bad right now and the contract between microsoft and nvidia concerning the graphics part contains no pricecuts!
The only thing they were arguing about was the MCP southbridge part.
The stock in the long term will bounce back a lot.
Don't forget that this quater was so bad because of too much inventory. The same problem AMD and Intel faced - look at their numbers.
In the next quarter this inventory will be cleared. That is enough to bring the earning back on the positive earning side in Nvidia's case.
This quarter card manufacturers ordered too much and then didnt buy that stuff so nvidia has too much inventory.
AMD for instance bought tons of Athlons back this quarter.

The switch to UMC is a good thing i think. It puts a lot of pressure on TSMC because they might loose one of their best customers.
UMC on the other side starts major partnerships with Infineon, AMD and Siemens-Fujitsu concerning new fab processes.
In my mind best thing Nvidia can do is to concentrate pretty early on 0.9 on their next gen part.
NV30 will be late no doubt but dont do the mistake and think ATI can switch their R300 easily to 0.13 within a few months.
Forget it. They will have to recompile a lot and will face problems too.
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Old 07-31-02, 07:26 PM   #27
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Quote:
They will have to recompile a lot and will face problems too.
but they have time on their side. They dont have to rush like nV does with the nV30. They also can wait a while and let some of the kinks get worked out of the system.

Quote:
The vast majority of these factors are out of Nvidia's hands...
I dont agree.

The poor Xbox sales could have partly been nV fault for setting the price too high on their compents. Remember MS and NV went to court over this. Not saying who was right/wrong still nV set their price and it was obvious that MS did not agree.

Lack of new products is their fault.

Poor acceptance to nForce again their fault. The original one was almost 5 moths late which allowed VIA to produce something that matched the perfromance gains. Also they did not have at the intial launch one with out the intergrated MX as no one really wanted that option. Finally they were $$ at first. Dont get me wrong. I have 2 nforce Mobos and love em...


Trouble with TSMC fab was partly a desgin choice they made. The could have taken a safer approach and used the .15 micro that has been very well tried and proven. but they opted for the more advance process and when you do that their are risks. ATI showed that you can make an impressive chip with loads of Transistors and fast speeds on the .15u.


I am not saying these are all nV fault. I am saying that choices NV made did play a big role in these and yes you have to hold nV to thier choices. Thus its partly their fault.....
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Old 07-31-02, 07:44 PM   #28
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You raised some good points...although ( in my opinion ) you're wrong about the Xbox...Microsoft was trying to make it in an industry which is absolutely dominated by two companies. They have had years to build a following and developers have been coding for them for all along.

Everyone had unrealistic expectations ( myself included ) for the first Xbox....Now, with a good following of customers and developers....Xbox 2 should be everything we thought the original Xbox would be.

I believe Nvidia had no choice in making the move to .13. The market recognizes Nvidia as the pioneer of sorts...The one who pushes the envelope a bit for the industry and the other companies follow. Although ATI has really taken the ball and ran with it, I imagine the market still looks primarily towards Nvidia for the drastic and dramatic.

I imagine Nvidia thought.."we could make a competitive product on .15 and possibly beat ATI's best....OR....we could make a revolutionary new product on .13 and definitely beat ATI's best"

STOP!!!!

I AM NOT SAYING THIS IS WHAT I BELIEVE!!! ( put the matches and gasoline away )
We ALL will have to wait until both products are out and tested...

Obviously Nvidia thinks they can beat ATI with their NV30...No company would intentionally release a sub-par product ( er...with the possible exception of Matrox but that's a whole different story - specific to gaming )

My whole point is....everyone is pointing a finger at Nvidia....and it is not entirely their fault....

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Old 07-31-02, 07:57 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally posted by pelly
Only time will tell....in my eyes....its a win/win situation as we know that both cards are going to be insanely fast!
Yes they will. its a great time to be a PC Gaming geek!
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Old 07-31-02, 08:01 PM   #30
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pelly,

I didn't say the 9700, or NV30, or GF4 Ti, or any other card was out of my price range. I simply said that the NV30 delay will keep the 9700's price high for a longer period of time. Regardless of which card you are waiting for, the NV30's setback is bad for everyone. I think you started to pick up on this late in your post... not sure why you misunderstood what I meant by "everyone loses."

However,

Quote:
I think that a shot out of the blue would capture a TON of market share from ATI. If NV30 is anywhere near as good as its being hyped-up to be...Nvidia would be in fantastic shape. Reviewers would finally have a card from each company which were released at relatively the same time ( vs. the usual 4-6months apart ). This way, the usual excuse ( "it's a newer card, it should outperform" ) is out the window...If Nvidia could beat ATI here, you'd have a ton of people gaming with some version of the NV30.
That's pretty delusional, and is what I was specifically referring to. And, it came after your comment about not being serious, so I thought you did intend it to be serious.

Finally, you can bet your ass that the tape-out news caused much if not most of the "recent" (read, today) downfall of NVIDIA stock. Those other factors accounted for the downward spiral over the past weeks/months, but there was a very abrupt lowering after the tape-out news was made public.
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Old 07-31-02, 10:07 PM   #31
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market share is not made and won entirely( or even in the majority) by high end graphics cards. why is everyone forgeting this? how many times do we have to hear the (illogical) argument that nvidia is "dead" or will "fall" because they release NV30 late. come on guys

since the stock holder meeting was held yesterday when it was revealed that NV30 has not taped out yet(does anyone know when this meeting was made available to the public? was it before or after the market closed) that tidbit of info certainly was responsible for today's price fall. nvidia sotck went down 31% today. it is no coincidence. i'm sure part of it has to do with profit expectations being lowered, but the bulk almost certainl can be attributed to NV30 delays.
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Old 07-31-02, 10:08 PM   #32
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Quote:
Originally posted by SurfMonkey
The GF4 series are all .15u chips. Maybe they are moving production of that series over to UMC so that TSMC can concentrate on the .13u process. And that's why UMC will be picking up the slack.
actually i should have said "future chips." the NV28 and NV30 i thought were both going to be .13
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Old 08-01-02, 04:32 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally posted by StealthHawk


actually i should have said "future chips." the NV28 and NV30 i thought were both going to be .13
nVidia said the only .13 chip they would have this year was the nv30. nv28 and nv18 will both be on .15

if the nv30 does indeed miss their "fall" ship date. They better be dang sure that the nv28 and nv18 beat the socks off ATIs low and mid end solutions. (as well as SiS )
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Old 08-01-02, 06:17 AM   #34
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Well the latest leaked dets do make reference to the NV28 and NV18, but that doesn't really account for much as the driver seems only to contain references to the modelines and nothing else new.

The dets have all contained references to the NV30 and NV31 since 28.90. That's why I'm wondering whether they have a .15u version in house running pretty slowly on a 128bit interface. They may be using it to develop drivers on so that they can work in tandem with the hardware people.

But if they are having to redesign schematics then I guess they'll have to rewrite any drivers they have anyway.

I really wish nVidia would just give everyone a straight answer about exactly where the NV3x stands. It's not like they have anything else to lose right now.

At least we know that it's going to take ATI quite a while to re-engineer the R300 onto .13u. I'm also of the opinion that ATI rushed things to bring the R300 out on .15u when the architecture is crying out to be built around .13u or lower.
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Old 08-01-02, 09:06 AM   #35
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Just out of interest heres the company Richard Huddy, Kevin Strange and others website..

http://www.codemafia.co.uk/

Doesn't look like many have left, I think they were mainly software engineers, not silicon engineers, or driver engineers. I still think nvidia will pull it off fine in the end.
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Old 08-01-02, 05:19 PM   #36
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The xbox may not be selling well in other countries, but in the US, it's breaking records.

Quote:
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content...me=ret&aid=409

Microsoft’s blockbusting US launch line-up for Xbox has paid dividends across the pond, with the NPD Group reporting that Xbox has posted a sales increase of 131% in the US in the two months following its $100 price cut.

Of the three US console price cuts during May, Xbox had the largest percentage gain as a result, and perhaps thanks to that, both Project Gotham Racing and Dead or Alive 3 have joined Halo: Combat Evolved in having sold more than one million copies worldwide. This makes Xbox the first videogame system ever to have three million-unit-selling launch titles after just eight months on the market.

The NPD Group has also confirmed that Xbox has sold more than ten million software units in is first eight months, the most sold for a new system in the US for the same period of time. Microsoft hopes for gamers to have more than 200 games to choose from by the holiday season, no doubt increasing its chances of doubling the figure in another eight months.
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